Dear Clients & Friends-
Marquette University Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin released their first poll of 2022 on Wednesday March 2nd. Below please find a summary of the survey’s results.
Quick Hits on the Poll
President Joe Biden Favorability -11%
- Favorability 42% (Was 44% in Oct. poll)
- Unfavorability 53% (Was 52% in Oct. poll)
President Joe Biden Job Approval -9%
- Favorability 43% (Was 43% in Oct. poll)
- Unfavorability 52% (Was 53% in Oct. poll)
Governor Tony Evers Favorability +6%
- Favorability 47% (Was 42% in Oct. poll)
- Unfavorability 41% (Was 45% in Oct. poll)
Governor Tony Evers Job Approval +9%
- 50% Approve (Was 45% in Oct. poll)
- 41% Disapprove (Was 46% in Oct. poll)
Sen. Ron Johnson Favorability -12%
Note 22% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
- Favorability 33% (Was 36% in Oct. poll)
- Unfavorability 45% (Was 42% in Oct. poll)
Sen. Tammy Baldwin Favorability +6%
Note 22% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
- Favorability 42% (Was 38% in Oct. poll)
- Unfavorability 36% (Was 39% in Oct. poll)
Background on the survey
Marquette University Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin released their first Wisconsin
statewide survey of 2022. Below please find the methodology of the poll as released
by the Law School in their press release:
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The poll interviewed 802 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone February 22-27, 2022. The margin of error is +/-3.8 percentage points for the full sample.
The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 44% Republican, 43% Democratic, and 13% independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 27% Republican, 25% Democratic and 47% independent.
Complete results can be found here:
National Politics
President Joe Biden Favorability -11%
- Favorability 42% (Was 44% in Oct. poll)
- Unfavorability 53% (Was 52% in Oct. poll)
President Joe Biden Job Approval -9%
- Favorability 43% (Was 43% in Oct. poll)
- Unfavorability 52% (Was 53% in Oct. poll)
President Joe Biden
In their first survey of the year, the MU Law School Poll found that 43% of registered voters approve of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president, and 52% disapprove of the way he is handling his job, a net -9% in job approval.
For comparison, in the last MU Law School survey in October 2021, 43% of registered voters approve of the job the president was doing and 53% disapprove of the way he is handling the job, a net -10% approval.
President Biden’s personal favorability tracks very similar to his job approval with 42% of registered voters having a favorable opinion of him and 53% having an unfavorable opinion of him, a net -11% favorability. Those numbers are slightly more negative than the October 2021 poll which found that 44% of registered voters had a favorable opinion of the President and 52% had an unfavorable opinion, a net -8% favorability.
Among voters who identified as Democratic, Biden is viewed favorably by 89% and unfavorably by 6%. Independents were 30% favorable and 60% unfavorable, while Republicans were 5% favorable and 92% unfavorable.
President Donald Trump Favorability -21%
- Favorability 36% (Was 38% in Oct. poll)
- Unfavorability 57% (Was 57% in Oct. poll)
Trump Favorability
President Biden’s -11% net favorability is significantly better than former President Trump’s favorability, which now sits at a -21% net favorability in the latest poll. This is the largest net negative favorability former President Trump has received in any Marquette poll.
Among voters who identified as Republican, Trump is viewed favorably by 80% and unfavorably by 11%. Independents were 26% favorable and 61% unfavorable, while Democrats were 2% favorable and 95% unfavorable.
National Politics
Inflation:
When asked about the extent to which they were concerned about inflation and higher prices, 95% said they were “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned” and 5% said they were “not too concerned” or “not at all concerned.”
Illegal Immigration:
60% of respondents said they were either “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned” about illegal immigration while 39% said they were “not too concerned” or “not at all concerned.”
84% of Republicans said they were “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned,” compared to 59% of Independents and 38% of Democrats.
Unemployment
66% of respondents said they were either “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned” about unemployment while 33% said they were “not too concerned” or “not at all concerned.”
66% of Republicans said they were “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned,” compared to 66% of Independents and 64% of Democrats.
Congress
Sen. Ron Johnson Favorability -12%
Note 22% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
- Favorability 33% (Was 36% in Oct. poll)
- Unfavorability 45% (Was 42% in Oct. poll)
US Senator Ron Johnson (R-Oshkosh):
33% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Republican US Senator Ron Johnson and 45% have and unfavorable opinion of him. Sen. Johnson’s -12% favorability is a drop from his -6% favorability (36% favorable-42% unfavorable) in the October 2021 survey. This is Sen. Johnson’s lowest net favorability rating in any MU Law School Poll. His previous lowest rating was -11% in November 2015.
About 63% of Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 30% of Independents and 5% of Democrats.
About 13% of Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 41% of Independents and 80% of Democrats.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin Favorability +6%
Note 22% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
- Favorability 42% (Was 38% in Oct. poll)
- Unfavorability 36% (Was 39% in Oct. poll)
US Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison):
42% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Democratic US Senator Tammy Baldwin and 36% have and unfavorable opinion of her. Sen. Baldwin’s +6% favorability is a significant positive shift from her net -1% favorability (38% favorable-39% unfavorable) in the October 2021 survey.
About 77% of Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 21% of Independents and 15% of Republicans.
About 10% of Democrats said they had an unfavorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 37% of Independents and 61% of Republicans.
State Politics
Governor Tony Evers Job Approval +9%
- 50% Approve (Was 45% in first Oct. poll)
- 41% Disapprove (Was 46% in first Oct. poll)
Governor Tony Evers Favorability +6%
- Favorability 47% (Was 42% in Oct. poll)
- Unfavorability 41% (Was 45% in Oct. poll)
Governor Tony Evers’ job approval has moved back to net positive with 50% of registered voters saying they approve of the job Governor Evers is doing and 41% saying they disapprove (+9% net approval). This is a 12-point swing since the October survey when 42% said they approved and 45% disapproved of the job Gov. Evers was doing (a net -3% approval).
When only looking at those with the most intense opinions; 26% of respondents said they strongly approved of the job Governor Evers was doing compared to 27% who said they strongly disapproved.
85% of Democrats said they approved of Evers, compared t0 39% of Independents and 18% of Republicans.
73% of Republicans said they disapproved of Evers, compared to 49% of Independents and 7% of Democrats.
Governor Evers’ personal favorability slightly lags his job approval, with 47% of registered voters saying they have a favorable opinion and 41% having an unfavorable opinion, for a net +6% favorability. This is up 7-points from the October survey when Governor Evers had a net -1% favorability.
82% of Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Evers, compared to 32% of independents and 17% of Republicans.
71% of Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of Evers, compared to 49% of independents and 8% of Democrats.
Looking at how Governor Evers is handling issues in Wisconsin:
- About 52% of respondents said they trusted Governor Evers “a great deal” or “a fair amount” as a source of information about coronavirus vaccines and treatments. About 43% said trusted Evers “not much” or “not at all.” This varied significantly by party identification: 88% of Democrats said they trusted Evers for this information, compared to only 39% of independents and 20% of Republicans.
2022 Elections
August 9th Partisan Primary
This month’s poll provides a baseline look at the status of the Republican Primary for Governor and the Democratic Primary for US Senate. 5 months out the poll finds that 54% of registered voters who plan to vote in the Republican Primary don’t know who they will vote for nor do 48% of Registered Voters who plan on voting in the Democratic Primary.
Republican Primary for Governor
Similar to the Republican candidates for Governor, the Democratic candidates for US Senate are not well known amongst registered with almost two-thirds of voters not having an opinion on the two most well known candidates; Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes (62% haven’t heard of/don’t know) and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry (72% haven’t heard of/don’t know).
Among likely Democratic Primary voters, Lt. Governor Barnes, is the most well known with a +39% net favorability.
Republican Primary for Governor
People who identified as Republicans or leaning Republican were asked about their preference in the Republican primary for Governor:
- Rebecca Kleefisch: 30%
- Kevin Nicholson: 8%
- Timothy Ramthun: 5%
- Someone else: 1%
- Will not vote: 1%
54% said they didn’t know who they would vote for in the primary.
Note: 363 respondents, Margin of Error of +/- 5.8 percentage points
Democratic Primary for Senate
Similar to the Republican candidates for Governor, the Democratic candidates for US Senate are not well known amongst registered with almost two-thirds of voters not having an opinion on the two most well known candidates; Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes (62% haven’t heard of/don’t know) and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry (72% haven’t heard of/don’t know).
Among likely Democratic Primary voters, Lt. Governor Barnes, is the most well known with a +39% net favorability.
Almost half of likely Democratic Primary voters are still undecided on their candidate for the US Senate (48%), but among those who have a preferred candidate, Lieutenant Governor Barnes is the choice of 23%:
- Mandela Barnes: 23%
- Alex Lasry: 13%
- Tom Nelson: 5%
- Sarah Godlewski: 3%
- Chantia Lewis: 2%
- Adam Murphy: 2%
- Gillan Battino: 1%
- Will not vote: 4%
48% said they didn’t know who they would vote for in the primary.
Note: 354 respondents, Margin of Error of +/- 5.7 percentage points
State Legislature
State Legislature:
37% of registered voters approve of the way the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job and 46% disapprove, a net -9% job approval for the Legislature.
Only 8% strongly approve of the job the legislature is doing, while 25% strongly disapprove.
Opinions are not as widely divided by party identification as they are for opinions on individual politicians.
- Republicans: 44% approve | 34% disapprove of job legislature is doing
- Democrats: 25% approve | 59% disapprove of job legislature is doing
- Independents: 39% approve | 47% disapprove of job legislature is doing
The Legislature’s job approval is roughly the same as August of 2021 when 39% approved of the job they were doing and 48% disapproved, a net -9% job approval for the Legislature.
State Issues
Right Direction-Wrong Track:
When asked “do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?” 39% of registered voters said Wisconsin is going in the right direction and 52% said it is on the “wrong track.”
Views largely broke down along partisan lines with a majority of Republicans and Independents saying Wisconsin was on the wrong track while a majority of Democrats said it was going in the right direction;
- Republican: 68% wrong track
- Democrat: 49% right direction
- Independent: 49% wrong track
Election-related:
- 67% of Wisconsin registered voters are confident that the votes for president in Wisconsin were accurately cast and counted in last year’s election
- 30% are not confident.
Education-related:
- 33% of registered voters think teachers should play the biggest role in determining curriculum for public schools and 35% believe parents should. School Boards accounted for 13%, Superintendents and principals 9%, and State legislators 5%.
- 59% favor allowing all students statewide to use publicly funded vouchers to attend private or religious schools (37% strongly favor/22% somewhat favor) and 37% oppose.
- 55% say the state’s public schools are in worse shape now than they were a few years ago, 29% say they are about the same, and 9% say they are better.
- 47% think Wisconsin schools have set their education standards lower than they should be, 31% think they are are about right, and 12% think they are higher than they should be.
Legalization of Marijuana
Support for the legalization of marijuana continues to grow among Wisconsinites. In the latest survey 61% of registered said they believe the use of marijuana should be legal compared to 31% who oppose legalization. And for the first time in a MU Poll the majority of Republicans support legalization with 51% saying they would support legalization compared to 42% who would oppose. In an April 2019 survey, the last time the question was asked, 56% of Republicans opposed legalization and 41% supported.
In the latest survey 60% of Independents and 75% of Democrats support legalization.
ABOUT US
If you would like any additional information about the above topic, or if you would like to find time to discuss the above matter in more detail, please do not hesitate to contact your Michael Best Strategies contact.
Have a great day,
Wisconsin GR Team
