Capitol Insights Archive MBS WISCONSIN NEWS ALERT- MU Poll Release August 17, 2022

MBS WISCONSIN NEWS ALERT- MU Poll Release August 17, 2022

August 18, 2022

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Marquette University Law School Poll released a new statewide poll on Wednesday, August 17th. Below, please find a summary of the survey’s results.

Quick Hits on the Poll

President Joe Biden Favorability -16%

Favorability 40% (Was 42% in June poll)
Unfavorability 56% (Was 54% in June poll)

President Joe Biden Job Approval -15%

Approve 40% (Was 40% in June poll)
Disapprove 55% (Was 57% in June poll)

Sen. Ron Johnson Favorability -9%

Note: 16% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

Favorability -% (Was 37% in June poll)
Unfavorability -% (Was 46% in June poll)

Governor Tony Evers Favorability +5%

Favorability 46% (Was 44% in June poll)
Unfavorability 41% (Was 42% in June poll)

Governor Tony Evers Job Approval +2%

47% Approve (Was 48% in June poll)
45% Disapprove (Was 45% in June poll)

Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes Favorability +15%

Note: 41% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

Favorability 37% (Was 21% in June poll)
Unfavorability 22% (Was 16% in June poll)

Tim Michels Favorability +0%

Note: 34% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

Favorability 33% (Was 22% in June poll)
Unfavorability 33% (Was 22% in June poll)

Vote preference for Wisconsin governor among registered voters

Tony Evers: 45%
Tim Michels: 43%
Joan Beglinger: 7%

Vote preference for U.S. Senate among registered voters

Ron Johnson: 44%
Mandela Barnes: 51%

Background on the survey

Marquette University Law School released their August poll this Wednesday. Below, please find the methodology of the poll as released by the Law School in their press release:

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The poll interviewed 811 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone between August 10th to 15th, 2022. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points for the full sample.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45% Republican, 44% Democratic, and 9% independent. Excluding those who lean to a party, the partisan makeup of the sample is 30% Republican, 29% Democratic and 41% independent.

Complete results can be found here:

National Politics

President Joe Biden Favorability -16%

Favorability 40% (Was 42% in June poll)
Unfavorability 56% (Was 54% in June poll)

President Joe Biden Job Approval -15%

Approve 40% (Was 40% in June poll)
Disapprove 55% (Was 57% in June poll)

President Joe Biden

The MU Law School Poll found that 40% of registered voters approve of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president, and 55% disapprove of the way he is handling his job, a net -15% in job approval.

For comparison, in the last MU Law School survey in June 2022, 40% of registered voters approved of the job the president was doing and 57% disapproved of the way he was handling the job, a net -17% approval.

President Biden’s personal favorability tracks very similar to his job approval with 40% of registered voters having a favorable opinion of him and 56% having an unfavorable opinion of him, a net -16% favorability. Those numbers are worse than the June poll, which found that 42% of registered voters had a favorable opinion of the President and 54% had an unfavorable opinion, a net -12% favorability.

Among voters who identified as Democratic or leaning Democratic, Biden is viewed favorably by 81% and unfavorably by 16%. Independents were 22% favorable and 58% unfavorable, while Republicans and leaning Republicans were 4% favorable and 94% unfavorable.

President Donald Trump Favorability -19%

Favorability 38% (Was 39% in June poll)
Unfavorability 57% (Was 56% in June poll)

Trump Favorability

President Biden’s -16% net favorability is slightly better than former President Trump’s favorability, which now sits at a -19% net favorability in the latest poll.

Among voters who identified as Republican or leaning Republican, Trump is viewed favorably by 71% and unfavorably by 21%. Independents were 32% favorable and 60% unfavorable, while Democrats were 5% favorable and 94% unfavorable.

Congress

Sen. Ron Johnson Favorability -9%

Note: 15% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

Favorability 38% (Was 37% in June poll)
Unfavorability 47% (Was 46% in June poll)

38% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Republican US Senator Ron Johnson and 47% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Johnson has the same net -9% favorability that he had in the June poll.

About 70% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 28% of Independents and 6% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.

About 15% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 37% of Independents and 83% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.

Sen. Tammy Baldwin Favorability +2%

Note: 24% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

Favorability 39% (Was 39% in June poll)
Unfavorability 37% (Was 37% in June poll)

39% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Democratic US Senator Tammy Baldwin and 37% have and unfavorable opinion of her. Sen. Baldwin’s net favorability did not change between the June and August polls, remaining at +2%.

About 71% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 34% of Independents and 9% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.

About 9% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had an unfavorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 27% of Independents and 67% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.

Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes Favorability +15%

Note: 41% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

Favorability 37% (Was 21% in June poll)
Unfavorability 22% (Was 16% in June poll)

37% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Democratic Lt. Governor and US Senate candidate Mandela Barnes and 22% have and unfavorable opinion of him. Sen. Baldwin’s net favorability increased 10-points between the June and August polls, going from +5% to +15%.

About 66% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Barnes, compared to 36% of Independents and 9% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.

About 2% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had an unfavorable opinion of Barnes, compared to 19% of Independents and 43% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.

State Politics

Governor Tony Evers

Governor Tony Evers Favorability +5%

Favorability 46% (Was 44% in June poll)
Unfavorability 41% (Was 42% in June poll)

Governor Tony Evers Job Approval +2%

47% Approve (Was 48% in June poll)
45% Disapprove (Was 45% in June poll)

Governor Evers’ personal favorability is nearly identical to his job approval, with 46% of registered voters saying they have a favorable opinion and 41% having an unfavorable opinion, for a net +5% favorability. This is a 3-point increase from the June survey when Governor Evers had a net +2% favorability.

84% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Evers, compared to 43% of independents and 11% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.

78% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of Evers, compared to 25% of independents and 7% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.

Governor Tony Evers’ job approval has slightly dropped with 47% of registered voters saying they approve of the job Governor Evers is doing and 45% saying they disapprove (+2% net approval). This is a minus 1-point swing since the June survey when 48% said they approved and 45% disapproved of the job Gov. Evers was doing (a net +3% approval).

When only looking at those with the most intense opinions, 27% of respondents said they strongly approved of the job Governor Evers was doing compared to 32% who said they strongly disapproved.

85% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they approved of Evers, compared to 39% of Independents and 11% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.

83% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they disapproved of Evers, compared to 30% of Independents and 9% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.

2022 Elections

Respondents were asked “if the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Tony Evers the Democrat, Tim Michels the Republican, and Joan Beglinger, the independent, for whom would you vote?”

Vote preference for Wisconsin governor among registered voters

Tony Evers: 45%
Tim Michels: 43%
Joan Beglinger: 7%

Respondents were asked “if the election for U.S. Senate were being held today and the candidates were Mandela Barnes the Democrat and Ron Johnson the Republican, for whom would you vote?”

Vote preference for U.S. Senate among registered voters

Ron Johnson: 44%
Mandela Barnes: 51%

State Issues

Right Direction-Wrong Track:

When asked “do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?” 35% of registered voters said Wisconsin is going in the right direction and 56% said it is on the “wrong track.”

Views largely broke down along partisan lines:

Republican/lean Republican: 19% right direction | 74% wrong track
Democrat/lean Democrat: 53% right direction | 38% wrong track
Independent: 32% right direction | 50% wrong track

In June 2022, 37% said that Wisconsin was going in the right direction and 56% said it was on the wrong track. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, 61% said it was going in the right direction and 30% said it was on the wrong track.

According to the poll, inflation remains the issue Wisconsin voters are most concerned about. 94% of registered voters said they were concerned about inflation.

Policy Issues

Registered voters were asked to rate how concerned they are with a variety of issues. Inflation ranks as the top issue of concern with 67% of registered voters saying they were “very concerned” followed by gun violence at 61% and crime at 58%.

Partisan affiliation has a clear impact on whether a registered voter is very concerned about a particular issue. The top three issues that Republicans are very concerned about are inflation (91%), crime (80%), and taxes (72%). Democrats, on the other hand, are very concerned about climate change (79%), gun violence (77%), and abortion policy (73%).

Inflation

Very concerned: 67% (GOP: 88% | Independents: 75% | Dems: 43%)
Somewhat concerned: 27% (GOP: 9% | Independents: 18% | Dems: 48%)
Not too concerned: 4% (GOP: 1% | Independents: 4% | Dems: 8%)
Not at all concerned: 0% (GOP: 0% | Independents: 3% | Dems: 0%)

Public Schools

Very concerned: 54% (GOP: 55% | Independents: 56% | Dems: 52%)
Somewhat concerned: 34% (GOP: 29% | Independents: 31% | Dems: 39%)
Not too concerned: 7% (GOP: 7% | Independents: 4% | Dems: 7%)
Not at all concerned: 3% (GOP: 6% | Independents: 3% | Dems: 1%)

Abortion Policy

Very concerned: 55% (GOP: 36%| Independents: 55% | Dems: 73%)
Somewhat concerned: 25% (GOP: 31% | Independents: 27% | Dems: 19%)
Not too concerned: 8% (GOP: 15% | Independents: 4% | Dems: 3%)
Not at all concerned: 7% (GOP: 13% | Independents: 6% | Dems: 2%)

Taxes

Very concerned: 47% (GOP: 62% | Independents: 66% | Dems: 26%)
Somewhat concerned: 38% (GOP: 30% | Independents: 30% | Dems: 48%)
Not too concerned: 12% (GOP: 7% | Independents: 4% | Dems: 19%)
Not at all concerned: 3% (GOP: 1% | Independents: 0% | Dems: 5%)

Gun Violence

Very concerned: 61% (GOP: 43% | Independents: 71% | Dems: 75%)
Somewhat concerned: 26% (GOP: 33% | Independents: 13% | Dems: 23%)
Not too concerned: 6% (GOP: 11% | Independents: 6% | Dems: 1%)
Not at all concerned: 5% (GOP: 9% | Independents: 6% | Dems: 1%)

Crime

Very concerned: 58% (GOP: 72% | Independents: 44% | Dems: 47%)
Somewhat concerned: 30% (GOP: 20% | Independents: 34% | Dems: —40)
Not too concerned: 9% (GOP: 6% | Independents: 10% | Dems: 11%)
Not at all concerned: 2% (GOP: 2% | Independents: 3% | Dems: 2%)

Coronavirus Pandemic in Wisconsin

Very concerned: 20% (GOP: 9% | Independents: 10% | Dems: 34%)
Somewhat concerned: 35% (GOP: 27% | Independents: 41% | Dems: 41%)
Not too concerned: 20% (GOP: 23% | Independents: 15% | Dems: 19%)
Not at all concerned: 25% (GOP: 41% | Independents: 34% | Dems: 5%)

Illegal Immigration

Very concerned: 40% (GOP: 62% | Independents: 34% | Dems: 19%)
Somewhat concerned: 28% (GOP: 23% | Independents: 35% | Dems: 32%)
Not too concerned: 15% (GOP: 5% | Independents: 16% | Dems: 25%)
Not at all concerned: 16% (GOP: 10% | Independents: 15% | Dems: 22%)

MBS WISCONSIN NEWS ALERT- MU Poll Release August 17, 2022

Quick Hits on the Poll

Background on the survey

National Politics

Congress