A poll conducted by Fox News under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R) found that Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes carries a narrow lead over incumbent U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), with 50% of respondents saying they would vote for Barnes if the election was held today and 46% saying that they would vote for Johnson.

66% of Johnson’s supporters said they enthusiastically support him, compared to 57% of Barnes’ supporters. However, 23% of Johnson’s supporters said that they had reservations in their support, compared to 15% of Barnes’ supporters. 27% of Barnes’ supporters said their support of him was because they disliked Johnson, compared to 8% of Johnson’s supporters who said the opposite. In these samples, Barnes’ supporters had a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points and Johnson’s supporters had a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

The race is tied among those who are “extremely” motivated to vote in November, with 49% for each. Barnes has a slight lead of 2 points among those who feel certain they will vote. Barnes maintains strong leads among moderates (+37 points), suburban women (+30 points), voters ages 65 and older (+23 points), and voters with a college degree (+16 points). Barnes also has greater party loyalty, as 96% of Democrats back him compared to 91% of Republicans who back Johnson. Independents also favor Barnes by a two-to-one margin.

Daron Shaw, the Republican pollster who conducted the poll along with Democrat Chris Anderson, said that Barnes has cut into Johnson’s support in the exurban and rural areas of Wisconsin. He said that Johnson will need to regain voters in both these areas, as well as improve his margins with suburban women.

The poll was conducted between August 12th and 16th and surveyed 1,006 registered voters. Respondents were randomly selected from a statewide voter file and were contacted on both landlines and cellphones. The entire sample had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. FiveThirtyEight gives Beacon/Shaw an “A” grade in their pollster ratings.

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