Quick Hits on the Poll
President Joe Biden Favorability -12%
- Favorability 42% (Was 40% in August poll)
- Unfavorability 54% (Was 56% in August poll)
President Joe Biden Job Approval -15%
- Approve 40% (Was 40% in August poll)
- Disapprove 55% (Was 55% in August poll)
Sen. Ron Johnson Favorability -8%
Note: 15% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
- Favorability 39% (Was 38% in August poll)
- Unfavorability 47% (Was 47% in August poll)
Governor Tony Evers Favorability +0%
- Favorability 45% (Was 46% in August poll)
- Unfavorability 45% (Was 41% in August poll)
Governor Tony Evers Job Approval -3%
- 44% Approve (Was 47% in August poll)
- 47% Disapprove (Was 45% in August poll)
Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes Favorability +1%
Note: 35% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
Favorability 33% (Was 37% in August poll)- Unfavorability 32% (Was 22% in August poll)
Tim Michels Favorability -5%
Note: 28% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
Favorability 34% (Was 33% in August poll)- Unfavorability 39% (Was 33% in August poll)
Vote preference for Wisconsin governor among likely voters
- Tony Evers: 47% (Was 48% in August poll)
- Tim Michels: 44% (Was 44% in August poll)
- Joan Beglinger: 5% (Was 4% in August poll)
Vote preference for Wisconsin governor among registered voters
- Tony Evers: 44% (Was 45% in August poll)
- Tim Michels: 43% (Was 43% in August poll)
- Joan Beglinger: 8% (Was 7% in August poll)
Vote preference for U.S. Senate among likely voters
- Ron Johnson: 49% (Was 45% in August poll)
- Mandela Barnes: 48% (Was 52% in August poll)
Vote preference for U.S. Senate among registered voters
- Ron Johnson: 48% (Was 44% in August poll)
- Mandela Barnes: 47% (Was 51% in August poll)
Background on the Survey
Marquette University Law School released their September poll this Wednesday. Below, please find the methodology of the poll as released by the Law School in their press release:
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The poll interviewed 801 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone between September 6th to 11th, 2022. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points for the full sample. The margin of error for likely voters is +/- 4.9 percentage points
The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45% Republican, 44% Democratic, and 10% independent. Excluding those who lean to a party, the partisan makeup of the sample is 30% Republican, 29% Democratic and 41% independent.
Complete results can be found here:
- Registered Voter Toplines
- Likely Voter Toplines
- Registered Voter Crosstabs
- Likely Voter Crosstabs
- Press Release
National Politics
President Joe Biden Favorability -12%
- Favorability 42% (Was 40% in August poll)
- Unfavorability 54% (Was 56% in August poll)
President Joe Biden Job Approval -15%
- Approve 40% (Was 40% in August poll)
- Disapprove 55% (Was 55% in August poll)
President Joe Biden
The MU Law School Poll found that 40% of registered voters approve of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president, and 55% disapprove of the way he is handling his job, a net -15% in job approval.
For comparison, in the last MU Law School survey in August 2022, 40% of registered voters approved of the job the president was doing and 55% disapproved of the way he was handling the job, a net -15% approval. These numbers are identical to the September poll.
President Biden’s personal favorability tracks very similar to his job approval with 42% of registered voters having a favorable opinion of him and 54% having an unfavorable opinion of him, a net -12% favorability. Those numbers are slightly better than the August poll, which found that 40% of registered voters had a favorable opinion of the President and 56% had an unfavorable opinion, a net -16% favorability.
Among voters who identified as Democratic or leaning Democratic, Biden is viewed favorably by 84% and unfavorably by 13%. Independents were 24% favorable and 59% unfavorable, while Republicans and leaning Republicans were 4% favorable and 94% unfavorable.
President Donald Trump Favorability -20%
- Favorability 38% (Was 38% in August poll)
- Unfavorability 58% (Was 57% in August poll)
Trump Favorability
President Biden’s -12% net favorability is better than former President Trump’s favorability, which now sits at a -20% net favorability in the latest poll.
Among voters who identified as Republican or leaning Republican, Trump is viewed favorably by 72% and unfavorably by 24%. Independents were 22% favorable and 67% unfavorable, while Democrats were 8% favorable and 91% unfavorable.
Congress
Sen. Ron Johnson Favorability -8%
Note: 15% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
- Favorability 39% (Was 38% in August poll)
- Unfavorability 47% (Was 47% in August poll)
US Senator Ron Johnson (R-Oshkosh):
39% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Republican US Senator Ron Johnson and 47% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Johnson’s net favorability has slightly improved to -8%, up from the net -9% favorability that he had in the August poll.
About 75% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 19% of Independents and 8% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
About 10% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 54% of Independents and 83% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin Favorability -3%
Note: 24% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
- Favorability 37% (Was 39% in August poll)
- Unfavorability 40% (Was 37% in August poll)
37% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Democratic US Senator Tammy Baldwin and 40% have and unfavorable opinion of her. Sen. Baldwin’s net favorability decreased between the August and September polls by 5 percentage points.
About 71% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 20% of Independents and 7% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
About 9% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had an unfavorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 33% of Independents and 71% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes Favorability +1%
Note: 35% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
- Favorability 33% (Was 37% in August poll)
- Unfavorability 32% (Was 22% in August poll)
33% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Democratic Lt. Governor and US Senate candidate Mandela Barnes and 32% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Barnes’ net favorability decreased 14 percentage points between the August and September polls, going from +15% to +1%.
About 66% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Barnes, compared to 17% of Independents and 4% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
About 4% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had an unfavorable opinion of Barnes, compared to 35% of Independents and 60% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
State Politics
Governor Tony Evers
Governor Tony Evers Favorability +0%
- Favorability 45% (Was 46% in August poll)
- Unfavorability 45% (Was 41% in August poll)
Governor Tony Evers Job Approval -3%
- 44% Approve (Was 47% in August poll)
- 47% Disapprove (Was 45% in August poll)
Governor Evers’ personal favorability is slightly better than his job approval, with 45% of registered voters saying they have a favorable opinion and 45% having an unfavorable opinion, for a net +0% favorability. This is a 5-point decrease from the August survey when Governor Evers had a net +5% favorability.
82% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Evers, compared to 35% of independents and 11% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
82% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of Evers, compared to 40% of independents and 8% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
Governor Tony Evers’ job approval has dropped with 44% of registered voters saying they approve of the job Governor Evers is doing and 47% saying they disapprove (-3% net approval). This is a minus 5-point swing since the August survey when 47% said they approved and 45% disapproved of the job Gov. Evers was doing (a net +2% approval).
When only looking at those with the most intense opinions, 27% of respondents said they strongly approved of the job Governor Evers was doing compared to 33% who said they strongly disapproved.
80% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they approved of Evers, compared to 37% of Independents and 10% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
83% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they disapproved of Evers, compared to 50% of Independents and 10% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
2022 Elections
Respondents were asked “if the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Tony Evers the Democrat, or Tim Michels the Republican, and Joan Beglinger, the independent, for whom would you vote?”
Vote preference for Wisconsin governor among likely voters
- Tony Evers: 47% (Was 48% in August poll)
- Tim Michels: 44% (Was 44% in August poll)
- Joan Beglinger: 5% (Was 4% in August poll)
Vote preference for Wisconsin governor among registered voters
- Tony Evers: 44% (Was 45% in August poll)
- Tim Michels: 43% (Was 43% in August poll)
- Joan Beglinger: 8% (Was 7% in August poll)
Respondents were asked “if the election for U.S. Senate were being held today and the candidates were Mandela Barnes the Democrat and Ron Johnson the Republican, for whom would you vote?”
Vote preference for U.S. Senate among likely voters
- Ron Johnson: 49% (Was 45% in August poll)
- Mandela Barnes: 48% (Was 52% in August poll)
Vote preference for U.S. Senate among registered voters
- Ron Johnson: 48% (Was 44% in August poll)
- Mandela Barnes: 47% (Was 51% in August poll)
State Issues
Right Direction-Wrong Track:
When asked “do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?” 40% of registered voters said Wisconsin is going in the right direction and 53% said it is on the “wrong track.”
Views largely broke down along partisan lines:
- Republican/lean Republican: 23% right direction | 73% wrong track
- Democrat/lean Democrat: 59% right direction | 32% wrong track
- Independent: 34% right direction | 53% wrong track
In August 2022, 35% said that Wisconsin was going in the right direction and 56% said it was on the wrong track. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, 61% said it was going in the right direction and 30% said it was on the wrong track.
According to the poll, inflation remains the issue Wisconsin voters are most concerned about. 94% of registered voters said they were concerned about inflation.
Excitement About Voting:
When asked “how enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections this November for governor, senator, and other offices?” 85% of registered voters said they were very or somewhat enthusiastic to vote with 66% of Republicans and 68% of Democrats saying they were very enthusiastic.
Broken down by geographic region in Wisconsin, only 36% of registered voters in the city of Milwaukee said they were very enthusiastic to vote compared to 68% in suburban Milwaukee, 72% in Madison, 69% in Green Bay / Appleton, and 61% in the rest of the state.
Policy Issues
Issues that Voters are “Very Concerned” About
Registered voters were asked to rate how concerned they are with a variety of issues. Inflation ranks as the top issue of concern with 70% of registered voters saying they were “very concerned” followed by crime at 61%, accurate vote count at 56%, and public schools at 56%.
Impact of Partisan Affiliation on Issues of Concern
Partisan affiliation has a clear impact on whether a registered voter is very concerned about a particular issue. The top three issues that Republicans are very concerned about are inflation (92%), accurate vote count (76%), and taxes (74%). Democrats, on the other hand, are very concerned about gun violence (85%), abortion policy (77%), and climate change (71%).
How concerned are you about…
*Respondents who lean towards a party are considered partisans
Inflation
Very concerned: 70% (GOP: 90% | Independents: 79% | Dems: 41%)
Somewhat concerned: 24% (GOP: 8% | Independents: 15% | Dems: 47%)
Not too concerned: 5% (GOP: 1% | Independents: 3% | Dems: 10%)
Not at all concerned: 2% (GOP: 1% | Independents: 0% | Dems: 3%)
