The University of Virginia’s “Crystal Ball” has moved Wisconsin’s 3rd CD from “lean Republican” to “likely Republican.” The 3rd Congressional District race was one of three House races in which the organization changed its rating. The Crystal Ball cited that its reasoning for the change was that the House Majority PAC was likely to cancel its nearly $1.7 million media buy to back Brad Pfaff. According to AdImpact, the buy was not planned to start until the final two weeks of the race and made up the bulk of the $2.2 million in ads that Pfaff and his supporters were planning to run in the four final weeks. It was one of three House races where the organization changed its rating.
In its reasoning, “Crystal Ball” cited reporting in Axios over the weekend that the House Majority PAC was likely to cancel its nearly $1.7 million media buy backing Dem Brad Pfaff, a state senator from Onalaska. On the GOP side, Derrick Van Orden and his supporters are planning to spend $2.5 million during that time frame, resulting in a GOP advantage of the number of ads planned to run. Crystal Ball also stated that “Pfaff is going against history: 1990 was the most recent midterm where the White House party held an open seat in a district that the sitting president lost 2 years earlier.”