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Quick Hits on the Poll

President Joe Biden Favorability -11%

  • Favorability 42% (Was 41% in October poll)
  • Unfavorability 53% (Was 54% in October poll)

President Joe Biden Job Approval -13%

  • Approve 41% (Was 42% in October poll)
  • Disapprove 54% (Was 55% in October poll)

Sen. Ron Johnson Favorability -3%
Note: 11% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

  • Favorability 43% (Was 41% in October poll)
  • Unfavorability 46% (Was 45% in October poll)

Governor Tony Evers Favorability -2%
Note: 10% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

  • Favorability 44% (Was 44% in October poll)
  • Unfavorability 46% (Was 46% in October poll)

Governor Tony Evers Job Approval -1%

  • 46% Approve (Was 46% in October poll)
  • 47% Disapprove (Was 48% in October poll)

Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes Favorability -4%
Note: 16% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

  • Favorability 40% (Was 39% in October poll)
  • Unfavorability 44% (Was 40% in October poll)

Tim Michels Favorability +0%
Note: 22% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

  • Favorability 39% (Was 36% in October poll)
  • Unfavorability 39% (Was 36% in October poll)

Vote preference for Wisconsin governor among likely voters

  • Tony Evers: 48% (Was 46% in October poll)
  • Tim Michels: 48% (Was 45% in October poll)
  • Joan Beglinger: 2% (Was 4% in October poll)

Vote preference for U.S. Senate among likely voters

  • Ron Johnson: 50% (Was 52% in October poll)
  • Mandela Barnes: 48% (Was 45% in October poll)

Background on the Survey 

Marquette University Law School released their October poll this Wednesday. Below, please find the methodology of the poll as released by the Law School in their press release:
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The poll interviewed 802 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone between October 24 – November 3, 2022. The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points for the full sample. The margin of error among the 679 likely voters is +/-4.8 percentage points.
The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 46% Republican, 44% Democratic, and 9% independent. Excluding those who lean to a party, the partisan makeup of the sample is 30% Republican, 28% Democratic and 41% independent.
Complete results can be found here:

National Politics 

President Joe Biden Favorability -11%

  • Favorability 42% (Was 41% in October poll)
  • Unfavorability 53% (Was 54% in October poll)

President Joe Biden Job Approval -13%

  • Approve 41% (Was 42% in October poll)
  • Disapprove 54% (Was 55% in October poll)

President Joe Biden
The MU Law School Poll found that 41% of registered voters approve of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president, and 54% disapprove of the way he is handling his job, a net -13% in job approval.

For comparison, in the last MU Law School survey in October 2022, 42% of registered voters approved of the job the president was doing and 55% disapproved of the way he was handling the job, a net -13% approval. These numbers were a slight improvement from the September poll when Biden had a net -15% approval.
 
President Biden’s personal favorability tracks very similar to his job approval with 42% of registered voters having a favorable opinion of him and 53% having an unfavorable opinion of him, a net -11% favorability. Those numbers are similar to the October poll, which found that 41% of registered voters had a favorable opinion of the President and 54% had an unfavorable opinion, a net -13% favorability.
Among voters who identified as Democratic or leaning Democratic, Biden is viewed favorably by 88% and unfavorably by 8%. Independents were 20% favorable and 59% unfavorable, while Republicans and leaning Republicans were 3% favorable and 95% unfavorable.

President Donald Trump Favorability -14%

  • Favorability 39% (Was 37% in October poll)
  • Unfavorability 53% (Was 55% in October poll)

Trump Favorability

President Biden’s -11% net favorability is better than former President Trump’s favorability, which now sits at a -14% net favorability in the latest poll.

Among voters who identified as Republican or leaning Republican, Trump is viewed favorably by 72% and unfavorably by 17%. Independents were 36% favorable and 46% unfavorable, while Democrats were 5% favorable and 92% unfavorable.
Sen. Ron Johnson Favorability -3%
Note: 11% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

  • Favorability 43% (Was 41% in October poll)
  • Unfavorability 46% (Was 45% in October poll)
US Senator Ron Johnson (R-Oshkosh):
43% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Republican US Senator Ron Johnson and 46% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Johnson’s net favorability has slightly improved to -3%, up from the net -4% favorability that he had in the October poll.
About 81% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 43% of Independents and 3% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
About 7% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 36% of Independents and 89% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin Favorability +0%
Note: 26% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

  • Favorability 37% (Was 36% in October poll)
  • Unfavorability 37% (Was 36% in October poll)
37% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Democratic US Senator Tammy Baldwin and 37% have and unfavorable opinion of her. Sen. Baldwin’s net favorability was unchanged between the October and November polls.
About 69% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 29% of Independents and 10% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
About 7% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had an unfavorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 32% of Independents and 68% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes Favorability -4%
Note: 16% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

  • Favorability 40% (Was 39% in October poll)
  • Unfavorability 44% (Was 40% in October poll)
40% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Democratic Lt. Governor and U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes and 44% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Barnes’ net favorability dropped 3 percentage point between the October and November polls, going from -1% to -4%.
About 80% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Barnes, compared to 27% of Independents and 3% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
About 7% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had an unfavorable opinion of Barnes, compared to 43% of Independents and 81% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.

State Politics 

Governor Tony Evers Favorability -2%
Note: 10% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

  • Favorability 44% (Was 44% in October poll)
  • Unfavorability 46% (Was 46% in October poll)

Governor Tony Evers Job Approval -1%

  • 46% Approve (Was 46% in October poll)
  • 47% Disapprove (Was 48% in October poll)
44% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Governor Evers and 46% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Evers’ net favorability decreased 2 percentage points between the September and October polls, going from +0% to -2%.
84% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Evers, compared to 35% of independents and 8% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
84% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of Evers, compared to 38% of independents and 8% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
Governor Tony Evers’ job approval has slightly increased with 46% of registered voters saying they approve of the job Governor Evers is doing and 47% saying they disapprove (-1% net approval). This is a plus 1-point swing since the October survey when 46% said they approved and 48% disapproved of the job Gov. Evers was doing (a net -2% approval).
When only looking at those with the most intense opinions, 32% of respondents said they strongly approved of the job Governor Evers was doing compared to 34% who said they strongly disapproved.
92% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they approved of Evers, compared to 28% of Independents and 6% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
86% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they disapproved of Evers, compared to 48% of Independents and 5% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
Tim Michels Favorability +0%
Note: 22% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

  • Favorability 39% (Was 36% in October poll)
  • Unfavorability 39% (Was 36% in October poll)
39% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Tim Michels and 39% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Michels’ net favorability was unchanged between the October and November polls, remaining steady at 0%.
About 74% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Michels, compared to 29% of Independents and 5% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
About 8% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of Michels, compared to 32% of Independents and 74% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.

2022 Elections 

Respondents were asked “if the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Tony Evers the Democrat, or Tim Michels the Republican, and Joan Beglinger, the independent, for whom would you vote?”

Vote preference for Wisconsin governor among likely voters

  • Tony Evers: 48% (Was 46% in October poll)
  • Tim Michels: 48% (Was 45% in October poll)
  • Joan Beglinger: 2% (Was 4% in October poll)

Recent polling in Governor’s race
Since Tim Michels won the GOP nomination in August, the MU Law School Poll has shown the governor’s race within the margin or error. The MU Law School Poll is not an outlier, other polls have also found an extremely tight race between Evers and Michels. Below is a sample of recent polls that show the governor’s race is competitive and remains within the margin of error.

Respondents were asked “if the election for U.S. Senate were being held today and the candidates were Mandela Barnes the Democrat and Ron Johnson the Republican, for whom would you vote?”

Vote preference for U.S. Senate among likely voters

  • Ron Johnson: 50% (Was 52% in October poll)
  • Mandela Barnes: 48% (Was 45% in October poll)

Recent polling in U.S. Senate race
Polling in the race for U.S. Senate has also been tight. Although Johnson has consistently been ahead in most recent polls, his lead has largely been within the margin of error. The MU Law School Poll tracks with other polls that have shown a close race between Johnson and Barnes. Below is a sample of recent polls that show the U.S. Senate race is competitive and mostly within the margin of error.

State Issues

Right Direction-Wrong Track:
When asked “do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?” 34% of registered voters said Wisconsin is going in the right direction and 58% said it is on the “wrong track.”
Views largely broke down along partisan lines:
  • Republican/lean Republican: 14% right direction | 81% wrong track
  • Democrat/lean Democrat: 56% right direction | 33% wrong track
  • Independent: 29% right direction | 56% wrong track
In October 2022, 31% said that Wisconsin was going in the right direction and 63% said it was on the wrong track. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, 61% said it was going in the right direction and 30% said it was on the wrong track.
According to the poll, inflation remains the issue Wisconsin voters are most concerned about. 68% of registered voters said they were concerned about inflation.
Likelihood of Voting:
When asked “what are the chances that you will vote in the November 2022 general election for governor, Congress, and other offices?” 74% of registered voters said they were absolutely certain to vote with 83% of Republicans, 89% of Democrats, and 72% of Independents saying they were absolutely certain to vote.

Policy Issues

Issues that Voters are “Very Concerned” About
Registered voters were asked to rate how concerned they are with a variety of issues. Inflation ranks as the top issue of concern with 68% of registered voters saying they were “very concerned” followed by public schools at 62%, and crime at 57%.
Impact of Partisan Affiliation on Issues of Concern
Partisan affiliation has a clear impact on whether a registered voter is very concerned about a particular issue. The top three issues that Republicans are very concerned about are accurate vote count (81%), inflation (80%), and crime (79%). Democrats, on the other hand, are very concerned about abortion policy (81%), gun violence (76%), and public schools (62%). Independents are very concerned about inflation (78%), public schools (64%), and crime (55%).

Inflation 

Inflation remains the issue Wisconsin voters are most concerned about. When asked, “how concerned are you about inflation?” 68% of registered voters said they were very or somewhat concerned.
Very concerned: 68% (GOP: 80% | Independents: 78% | Dems: 38%)
Somewhat concerned: 24% (GOP: 18% | Independents: 19% | Dems: 40%)
Not too concerned: 6% (GOP: 2% | Independents: 2% | Dems: 20%)
Not at all concerned: 2% (GOP: 0% | Independents: 1% | Dems: 3%)
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Michael Best Strategies (Strategies) helps companies accelerate their success through a combination of strategic business consulting, lobbying, government relations, public affairs, and communications. The firm has thrived by providing a diverse team of professionals with the experience, skills, and relationships necessary to help each client achieve their goals more quickly and fully.

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