Four new polls released this week showed a close race between Republican U.S. Senator Ron Johnson and his Democratic opponent Mandela Barnes. A new poll from Trafalgar Group showed Johnson had the support of 48.7% of likely voters while Barnes was backed by 46.5%. The poll of 1,087 likely voters was conducted September 15-19 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.9%. Trafalgar uses a mix of several methods to deliver its polling questionnaire including live callers, integrated voice response, text messages, emails, and two other digital methods it will not publicly disclose. FiveThirtyEight rates Trafalgar an A- pollster.
A new poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates commissioned by AARP found Johnson had the support of 51% of likely voters while his Barnes was backed by 46%. The poll of 1,399 likely voters was conducted September 18-25 via landline (30%), cellphone (35%), and SMS-to-web (35%). The margin of error for the statewide sample of 500 likely voters is +/- 4.4%. FiveThirtyEight rates Fabrizio a B/C pollster.
A new poll from Fox News found that Johnson had the support of 48% of registered voters while Barnes had the support of 44%. The poll was conducted by Deacon Research and Shaw & Company between September 22-26, and included interviews with registered voters randomly selected from the state voter records. Voters spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The margin of error of the sample of 1,012 Wisconsin registered voters is +/- 3%. FiveThirtyEight rates Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. as an A pollster.
A poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP) found Johnson had the support of 47% of registered voters while Barnes was also backed by 47%. 6% of respondents were unsure of who they would vote for. The poll of 574 registered voters was conducted September 26-27 using automated calls to landlines and texts to cell phones, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.1%. FiveThirtyEight rates PPP an A- pollster.
- FiveThirtyEight’s composite polling score favors Johnson +1.9.
- RealClearPolitics’ polling spread favors Johnson +2.3.
