Marquette University Law School Poll released a new statewide poll on Wednesday, November 8th. Below, please find a summary of the survey’s results.
Quick Hits on the Poll
President Joe Biden Favorability -14%
- Favorability 42% (Was 45% in June poll)
- Unfavorability 56% (Was 54% in June poll)
President Joe Biden Job Approval -15%
- Approve 42% (Was 45% in June poll)
- Disapprove 57% (Was 53% in June poll)
Governor Tony Evers Favorability +8% 
- Favorability 50% (Was 52% in June poll)
- Unfavorability 42% (Was 39% in June poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 7%
Governor Tony Evers Job Approval +7%
- 53% Approve (Was 57% in June poll)
- 46% Disapprove (Was 39% in June poll)
Senator Ron Johnson Favorability -10%
- Favorability 40% (Was 37% in June poll)
- Unfavorability 50% (Was 50% in June poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 10%
Senator Tammy Baldwin Favorability -2%
- Favorability 41% (Was 40% in June poll)
- Unfavorability 43% (Was 37% in June poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 15%
GOP Presidential Primary Preference
- Trump 38% (Was 31% in June poll)
- DeSantis 18% (Was 30% in June poll)
- Other 20% (Was 18% in June poll)
- Undecided 24% (Was 21% in June poll)
Background on the Survey
Marquette University Law School released a June poll this Wednesday. Below, please find the methodology of the poll as released by the Law School in their press release:
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The poll interviewed 908 registered Wisconsin voters between October 26 – November 2, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points for the full sample. The sample includes 402 Republicans and independents who lean Republican and 386 Democrats or independents who lean Democrat. The interviews were conducted online with 693 respondents and with 215 by telephone using live interviewers.
Complete results can be found here:
National Politics
President Joe Biden
President Joe Biden Favorability -14%
- Favorability 42% (Was 45% in June poll)
- Unfavorability 56% (Was 54% in June poll)
President Joe Biden Job Approval -15%
- Approve 42% (Was 45% in June poll)
- Disapprove 57% (Was 53% in June poll)
The MU Law School Poll found that 42% of registered voters approve of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president, and 57% disapprove of the way he is handling his job, a net -15% in job approval.
For comparison, in the last MU Law School survey in June 2023, 45% of registered voters approved of the job the president was doing and 53% disapproved of the way he was handling the job, a net -8% approval.
President Biden’s personal favorability tracks close to his job approval with 42% of registered voters having a favorable opinion of him and 56% having an unfavorable opinion of him, a net -14% favorability. Those numbers are 5 percentage-points worse than the June poll, which found that 45% of registered voters had a favorable opinion of the President and 54% had an unfavorable opinion, a net -9% favorability.
Among voters who identified as Democrats, Biden is viewed favorably by 82% and unfavorably by 16%. Independents were 37% favorable and 54% unfavorable, while Republicans were 4% favorable and 95% unfavorable.
Senator Ron Johnson
Senator Ron Johnson Favorability -10%
- Favorability 40% (Was 37% in June poll)
- Unfavorability 50% (Was 50% in June poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 10%
40% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Republican US Senator Ron Johnson and 50% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Johnson’s net favorability has decreased to -10%, up from the net -13% favorability that he had in the June poll.
About 77% of Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 32% of Independents and 3% of Democrats.
About 14% of Republicans had an unfavorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 46% of Independents and 88% of Democrats.
Senator Tammy Baldwin
Senator Tammy Baldwin Favorability -2%
- Favorability 41% (Was 40% in June poll)
- Unfavorability 43% (Was 37% in June poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 15%
41% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Democratic US Senator Tammy Baldwin and 43% have an unfavorable opinion of her. Sen. Baldwin’s net favorability increased between the June and November polls by 1 percentage-point.
About 76% of Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 28% of Independents and 11% of Republicans.
About 8% of Democrats said they had an unfavorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 48% of Independents and 77% of Republicans.
State Politics
Governor Tony Evers
Governor Tony Evers Favorability +8%
- Favorability 50% (Was 52% in June poll)
- Unfavorability 42% (Was 39% in June poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 7%
Governor Tony Evers Job Approval +7%
- 53% Approve (Was 57% in June poll)
- 46% Disapprove (Was 39% in June poll)
50% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Governor Evers and 42% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Evers’ net favorability decreased 5 percentage-points between the June and November polls, dropping from +13% to +8%.
90% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Evers, compared to 48% of independents and 12% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
80% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of Evers, compared to 40% of independents and 5% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
Governor Tony Evers’ job approval has decreased with 53% of registered voters saying they approve of the job Governor Evers is doing and 46% saying they disapprove (+7% net approval). This is a minus 11-point swing since the June survey when 57% said they approved and 39% disapproved of the job Gov. Evers was doing (a net +18% approval).
91% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they approved of Evers, compared to 52% of Independents and 16% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
82% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they disapproved of Evers, compared to 45% of Independents and 8% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
The Wisconsin Legislature Job Approval -17%
- Approve 40%
- Disapprove 57%
- Haven’t heard enough 3%
The Wisconsin state Supreme Court Job Approval +8%
- Approve 51%
- Disapprove 43%
- Haven’t heard enough 5%
2024 Elections
GOP Presidential Primary Election
Respondents were asked “Here are some potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for or haven’t you decided?”
Vote preference for GOP presidential nominee among Republicans and lean-Republicans
- Donald Trump: 38% (Was 31% in June poll)
- Ron DeSantis: 18% (Was 30% in June poll)
- Nikki Hailey: 11% (Was 3% in June poll)
- Mike Pence: 3% (Was 6% in June poll)
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 3% (Was 3% in June poll)
- Tim Scott: 1% (Was 5% in June poll)
- Undecided: 24% (Was 21% in June poll)
Former President Donald Trump
Former President Donald Trump Favorability -24%
- Favorability 37% (Was 33% in June poll)
- Unfavorability 61% (Was 65% in June poll)
37% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of former President Donald Trump and 61% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Trump’s net favorability has increased to -24%, up from the net -32% favorability that he had in the June poll.
About 69% of Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Trump, compared to 34% of Independents and 4% of Democrats.
About 28% of Republicans had an unfavorable opinion of Trump, compared to 57% of Independents and 96% of Democrats.
Governor Ron DeSantis Favorability -12%
- Favorability 37% (Was 33% in June poll)
- Unfavorability 49% (Was 48% in June poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 13% (Was 18% in June poll)
37% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and 49% have an unfavorable opinion of him.
About 73% of Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Desantis, compared to 30% of Independents and 3% of Democrats.
About 15% of Republicans had an unfavorable opinion of Desantis, compared to 42% of Independents and 86% of Democrats.
Former Governor Nikki Haley Favorability -3%
- Favorability 31%
- Unfavorability 34%
- Haven’t heard enough 33%
31% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and 34% have an unfavorable opinion of her.
About 54% of Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Haley, compared to 23% of Independents and 9% of Democrats.
About 18% of Republicans had an unfavorable opinion of Haley, compared to 22% of Independents and 54% of Democrats.
Hypotheticals for Presidential General Election
Respondents were asked “If you had to choose, would you vote for [Biden] or for [Trump]?”
Vote preference for President among all voters
- Joe Biden: 50% (Was 52% in June poll)
- Donald Trump: 48% (Was 43% in June poll)
Respondents were asked “If you had to choose, would you vote for [Biden] or for [DeSantis]?”
Vote preference for President among all voters
- Joe Biden: 48% (Was 49% in June poll)
- Ron Desantis: 50% (Was 47% in June poll)
Respondents were asked “If you had to choose, would you vote for [Biden] or for [Haley]?”
Vote preference for President among all voters
- Joe Biden: 44%
- Nikki Haley: 53%
RFK, Jr. as Independent
RFK, Jr. Favorability -8%
- Favorability 31%
- Unfavorability 39%
- Haven’t heard enough 30%
Respondents were asked “If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates??”
Definitely: 5% (GOP: 6% | Independents: 8% | Dems: 4%)
Probably: 23% (GOP: 30% | Independents: 36% | Dems: 13%)
Probably not: 29% (GOP: 37% | Independents: 26% | Dems: 23%)
Definitely not: 39% (GOP: 25% | Independents: 22% | Dems: 60%)
Don’t know: 3% (GOP: 3% | Independents: 6% | Dems: 1%)
State Issues
Right Direction-Wrong Track:
When asked “do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?” 36% of registered voters said Wisconsin is going in the right direction and 62% said it is on the “wrong track.”
Views largely broke down along partisan lines:
- Republican: 19% right direction | 79% wrong track
- Democrat: 54% right direction | 43% wrong track
- Independent: 31% right direction | 69% wrong track
In June 2023, 40% said that Wisconsin was going in the right direction and 57% said it was on the wrong track. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, 61% said it was going in the right direction and 30% said it was on the wrong track.
Judicial Candidates and Issues:
With the recent election of liberal-leaning state Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz, judicial campaigns have come under increased scrutiny. When asked “Should judicial candidates discuss during campaigns issues likely to come before them if elected so voters know what the candidates stand for or should they avoid talking about such issues in order not to seem to be pre-judging the issues?” 80% of registered voters said judicial candidates should “discuss issues” and 19% said to “avoid discussing issues.”
The view that judicial candidates should discuss issues was the majority feeling regardless of political affiliation:
- Republican: 71% discuss issues | 29% avoid discussing issues
- Democrat: 90% discuss issues | 10% avoid discussing issues
- Independent: 80% discuss issues | 19% avoid discussing issues
Redraw State Legislative District Maps Now or in 2031:
A case currently before the state Supreme Court could require maps of the legislative districts for the state Senate and Assembly to be redrawn for upcoming elections. When asked “Do you favor redrawing the district maps or should the maps created prior to the 2022 elections remain in place until the next scheduled redistricting in 2031?” 45% of registered voters said to “redraw district maps” and 51% said to “keep maps in place.”
Views on whether to redraw the district maps or keeps the maps in place broke down along partisan lines with Republicans favoring the current maps and Democrats wanting to draw new maps:
- Republican: 19% redraw district maps | 76% keep maps in place
- Democrat: 73% redraw district maps | 23% keep maps in place
- Independent: 42% redraw district maps | 55% keep maps in place
Policy Issues
Abortion personal importance
When asked, “How important is the abortion issue to you—would you say it is one of the most important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all?” 80% of registered voters in Wisconsin said abortion is personally one of the most important issues or somewhat important while 19% said abortion is not very important or not at all important.
A majority of respondents from both parties say abortion is personally one of the most important issues or somewhat important:
One of the most important: 38% (GOP: 28% | Independents: 19% | Dems: 55%)
Somewhat important: 42% (GOP: 42% | Independents: 59% | Dems: 37%)
Not very important: 13% (GOP: 19% | Independents: 18% | Dems: 6%)
Not very important at all: 6% (GOP: 11% | Independents: 4% | Dems: 1%)
