Marquette University Law School Poll released a new statewide poll on Wednesday, February 7th. Below, please find a summary of the survey’s results.
Quick Hits on the Poll
President Joe Biden Favorability -17%
- Favorability 41% (Was 42% in November poll)
- Unfavorability 58% (Was 56% in November poll)
President Joe Biden Job Approval -17%
- Approve 41% (Was 42% in November poll)
- Disapprove 58% (Was 57% in November poll)
Governor Tony Evers Favorability +7%
- Favorability 52% (Was 50% in November poll)
- Unfavorability 45% (Was 42% in November poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 3%
Governor Tony Evers Job Approval +7%
- 51% Approve (Was 53% in November poll)
- 44% Disapprove (Was 46% in November poll)
Senator Ron Johnson Favorability -14%
- Favorability 38% (Was 40% in November poll)
- Unfavorability 52% (Was 50% in November poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 9%
Senator Tammy Baldwin Favorability -3%
- Favorability 42% (Was 41% in November poll)
- Unfavorability 45% (Was 43% in November poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 13%
GOP Presidential Primary Preference
- Trump 64% (Was 38% in November poll)
- Haley 22% (Was 18% in November poll)
- Undecided 14% (Was 24% in November poll)
Background on the survey
Marquette University Law School released a February poll this Wednesday. Below, please find the methodology of the poll as released by the Law School in their press release:
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The poll interviewed 930 registered Wisconsin voters between January 24-31, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points for the full sample. The sample includes 408 Republicans and independents who lean Republican and 522 Democrats or independents who lean Democrat. The interviews were conducted online with 814 respondents and with 116 by telephone using live interviewers.
Complete results can be found here:
National Politics
President Joe Biden
President Joe Biden Favorability -17%
- Favorability 41% (Was 42% in November poll)
- Unfavorability 58% (Was 56% in November poll)
President Joe Biden Job Approval -17%
- Approve 41% (Was 42% in November poll)
- Disapprove 58% (Was 57% in November poll)
The MU Law School Poll found that 41% of registered voters approve of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president, and 58% disapprove of the way he is handling his job, a net -17% in job approval.
For comparison, in the last MU Law School survey in November 2023, 42% of registered voters approved of the job the president was doing and 57% disapproved of the way he was handling the job, a net -15% approval.
President Biden’s personal favorability is the same as his job approval with 41% of registered voters having a favorable opinion of him and 58% having an unfavorable opinion of him, a net -17% favorability. Those numbers are 3 percentage-points worse than the November poll, which found that 42% of registered voters had a favorable opinion of the President and 56% had an unfavorable opinion, a net -14% favorability.
Among voters who identified as Democrats, Biden is viewed favorably by 79% and unfavorably by 20%. Independents were 48% favorable and 50% unfavorable, while Republicans were 4% favorable and 95% unfavorable.
Senator Ron Johnson
Senator Ron Johnson Favorability -14%
- Favorability 38% (Was 40% in November poll)
- Unfavorability 52% (Was 50% in November poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 9%
38% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Republican US Senator Ron Johnson and 52% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Johnson’s net favorability has decreased to -14%, down from the net -10% favorability that he had in the November poll.
About 73% of Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 34% of Independents and 3% of Democrats.
About 17% of Republicans had an unfavorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 51% of Independents and 90% of Democrats.
Senator Tammy Baldwin
Senator Tammy Baldwin Favorability -3%
- Favorability 42% (Was 41% in November poll)
- Unfavorability 45% (Was 43% in November poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 13%
42% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Democratic US Senator Tammy Baldwin and 45% have an unfavorable opinion of her. Sen. Baldwin’s net favorability decreased between the February and November polls by 1 percentage-point.
About 74% of Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 48% of Independents and 11% of Republicans.
About 11% of Democrats said they had an unfavorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 42% of Independents and 78% of Republicans.
State Politics
Governor Tony Evers
Governor Tony Evers Favorability +7%
- Favorability 52% (Was 50% in November poll)
- Unfavorability 45% (Was 42% in November poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 3%
Governor Tony Evers Job Approval +7%
- 51% Approve (Was 53% in November poll)
- 44% Disapprove (Was 46% in November poll)
52% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Governor Evers and 45% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Evers’ net favorability decreased 1 percentage-point between the November and February polls, dropping from +8% to +7%.
91% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Evers, compared to 57% of independents and 14% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
83% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of Evers, compared to 40% of independents and 6% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
Governor Tony Evers’ job approval has remained stable with 51% of registered voters saying they approve of the job Governor Evers is doing and 44% saying they disapprove (+7% net approval). This is the same as the November survey when 53% said they approved and 46% disapproved of the job Gov. Evers was doing (a net +7% approval).
88% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they approved of Evers, compared to 54% of Independents and 16% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
82% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they disapproved of Evers, compared to 39% of Independents and 5% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
The Wisconsin Legislature Job Approval -24%
- Approve 34% (Was 40% in November poll)
- Disapprove 58% (Was 57% in November poll)
- Don’t Know 8%
The Wisconsin state Supreme Court Job Approval +2%
- Approve 45% (Was 51% in November poll)
- Disapprove 43% (Was 43% in November poll)
- Don’t know 13%
2024 Elections
GOP Presidential Primary Election
Respondents were asked “If the Republican primary were today, whom would you vote for or haven’t you decided?”
Vote preference for GOP presidential nominee among Republicans and lean-Republicans
- Donald Trump: 64% (Was 38% in November poll)
- Nikki Hailey: 22% (Was 11% in November poll)
- Undecided: 14% (Was 24% in November poll)
Former President Donald Trump
Former President Donald Trump Favorability -18%
- Favorability 40% (Was 37% in November poll)
- Unfavorability 58% (Was 61% in November poll)
40% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of former President Donald Trump and 58% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Trump’s net favorability has increased to -18%, up from the net -24% favorability that he had in the November poll.
About 77% of Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Trump, compared to 28% of Independents and 5% of Democrats.
About 21% of Republicans had an unfavorable opinion of Trump, compared to 68% of Independents and 94% of Democrats.
Former Governor Nikki Haley Favorability -6%
- Favorability 36% (Was 31% in November poll)
- Unfavorability 42% (Was 34% in November poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 22% (Was 33% in November poll)
36% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and 42% have an unfavorable opinion of her.
About 52% of Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Haley, compared to 41% of Independents and 17% of Democrats.
About 31% of Republicans had an unfavorable opinion of Haley, compared to 34% of Independents and 57% of Democrats.
Hypotheticals for Presidential General Election
Respondents were asked “If you had to choose, would you vote for [Biden] or for [Trump]?”
Vote preference for President among all voters
- Joe Biden: 49% (Was 50% in November poll)
- Donald Trump: 49% (Was 48% in November poll)
Respondents were asked “If you had to choose, would you vote for [Biden] or for [Haley]?”
Vote preference for President among all voters
- Joe Biden: 41% (Was 44% in November poll)
- Nikki Haley: 57% (Was 53% in November poll)
Respondents were asked “If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, independent Cornel West, or Green Party’s Jill Stein?”
Vote preference for President among all voters
- Joe Biden: 37%
- Donald Trump: 40%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 16%
- Cornel West: 2%
- Stein: 4%
State Issues
Right Direction-Wrong Track:
When asked “do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?” 42% of registered voters said Wisconsin is going in the right direction and 57% said it is on the “wrong track.”
Views largely broke down along partisan lines:
- Republican: 23% right direction | 77% wrong track
- Democrat: 62% right direction | 36% wrong track
- Independent: 44% right direction | 56% wrong track
In November 2023, 36% said that Wisconsin was going in the right direction and 62% said it was on the wrong track. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, 61% said it was going in the right direction and 30% said it was on the wrong track.
State of WI’s Economy:
As Wisconsin heads towards a presidential election in November, respondents were asked “How would you describe the state of the Wisconsin economy these days?” 48% of registered voters described Wisconsin’s economy as “excellent” or “good” while 52% described it as “not so good” or “poor.”
Political affiliation had a significant impact on a respondent’s view of the state’s economy with Republicans having a more negative view compared to Democrats:
Excellent: 6% (GOP: 3% | Independents: 3% | Dems: 9%)
Good: 42% (GOP: 28% | Independents: 41% | Dems: 58%)
Not so good: 38% (GOP: 48% | Independents: 43% | Dems: 26%)
Poor: 14% (GOP: 21% | Independents: 13% | Dems: 7%)
SCOWIS Maps Decision:
In December, the state Supreme Court ordered the redrawing of district maps for the state Assembly and Senate, replacing existing districts with new ones for the 2024 elections. When asked “How much do you favor or oppose this decision?” 42% of registered voters said they favored the decision and 34% said they opposed the decision.
Support for the Court’s decision to replace the current legislative maps largely broke down along partisan lines with Republicans opposing the decision and Democrats supporting the decision:
- Republican: 19% favor | 55% oppose
- Democrat: 68% favor | 11% oppose
- Independent: 38% favor | 37% oppose
Policy Issues
Legalization of Marijuana:
When asked, “Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not?” 63% of registered voters in Wisconsin said marijuana should be legalized while 29% said marijuana should be not legalized.
Republican respondents are split if marijuana should be legalized, but Democrats and Independents are in favor.
- Republican: 46% favor | 46% oppose
- Democrat: 83% favor | 11% oppose
- Independent: 62% favor | 27% oppose
When asked, “Do you think the use of marijuana for medical purposes with a doctor’s prescription should be made legal, or not?” 83% of registered voters in Wisconsin said medical marijuana should be legalized while 10% said medical marijuana should be not legalized.
Respondents from both parties were in support when the question was changed to medical marijuana. Republican respondents still have the lowest percentage of support.
- Republican: 78% favor | 17% oppose
- Democrat: 95% favor | 2% oppose
- Independent: 84% favor | 11% oppose
