In this update:

• Election Updates
• Administration Updates

Election Updates

Spring Election Recap

The Spring Election this week included the presidential preference primary, two constitutional amendments, referendums, and local races.

• President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump both won their parties’ primaries.

• The two constitutional amendments both passed.

• Rep. Evan Goyke (D-Milwaukee) won his bid for Milwaukee City Attorney while Rep. Marisabel Cabrera (D-Milwaukee) won her race for Milwaukee County Circuit Court. Because state law bars those serving in judicial roles from simultaneously holding other elected offices outside the judiciary, Rep. Cabrera must vacate her Assembly seat prior to being sworn into her circuit court seat on August 1. Since Milwaukee city attorney is not a judicial position, Rep. Goyke has promised to continue to hold his Assembly seat to avoid giving Republicans a supermajority in the Assembly.

• Rep. Todd Novak (R-Dodgeville) lost his Dodgeville mayor’s race and said the loss will not impact his plans to run for reelection to the assembly. Rep. Angie Sapik (R – Lake Nebagamon) received enough write-in votes for two different county board seats, but she only plans to serve for one seat. Rep. Steve Doyle (D-Onalaska) also won reelection to the La Crosse County Board.

• Milwaukee voters approved a $252 million school referendum.

For more information on the elections, read our Spring Election Preview.

For the results as votes were coming in, read our April 2nd Election Results.

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State Assembly and Senate

Incumbent lawmaker re-election announcements

More lawmakers this week announced their intentions to run for re-election under the new 2023 Act 94 legislative district maps. Listed below are the latest announcements from legislators.

• Representative Dave Armstrong (R-Rice Lake) announced he will seek reelection in the new 67th AD. Rep. Armstrong was drawn into the 67th AD under the new maps, having previously served in the 75th AD since 2020. The new 67th AD has a 62.5% GOP lean.

• Rep. Clinton Anderson (D-Beloit) announced his reelection bid for the 45th AD. Rep. Anderson has represented the 45th since 2022 and was redrawn into the district under the new maps without another incumbent. The new 45th AD has a 55.4% Democratic lean.

• Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-Onalaska) announced his reelection campaign for the 32nd SD. The new 32nd SD has a 53% Democratic lean.

Not running for reelection

Representatives John Macco (R-Ledgeview) and Jon Plumer (R-Lodi) announced this week that they will not seek re-election. Reps. Macco and Plumer join 17 other incumbent lawmakers in not seeking re-election to their current office in 2024.

• Representative John Macco (R-Ledgeview) has represented the 88th AD for a decade and said he and his wife are looking “forward to enjoying a Wisconsin summer, spending quality time with family, working to grow her new business and seeing that Republicans remain the majority party in the Wisconsin Legislature.” Rep. Macco was paired with 2nd AD incumbent Rep. Shae Sortwell (R-Two Rivers) in the 2nd AD under the new maps. Rep. Sortwell announced his bid for the 2nd AD in March, and the district has a 61% GOP lean.
• Rep. Jon Plumer (R-Lodi) represented the 42nd AD since winning a special election in 2018 and was assistant majority leader during this past session. Under the new maps, Rep. Plumer was drawn into the 42nd with Rep. William Penterman (R-Columbus). Rep. Penterman already announced he will be moving to the 38th AD. The new 42nd has a 58.6% Democratic lean. Maureen McCarville (D-DeForest) is the only candidate announced to run in the district.

* Partisan Performance was calculated using the election results from the 2022 U.S. Senate election, the 2022 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election, and the 2020 Presidential Election.

Non-incumbent election announcements

State Assembly

• 2nd AD: Navy veteran Alicia Saunders (D-Kimberly) told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that she will run for the 2nd AD. The district is currently represented by GOP Rep. Shae Sortwell, who has held the seat since 2018. The new 2nd AD has a 61% GOP lean.

 

• 14th AD: Mental health social worker Nate Kieso (D-West Allis) announced his bid for the 14th AD. The seat is currently represented by Rep. Robyn Vining (D-Wauwatosa) who was drawn into the 13th AD. The seat has a 55.3% Democratic lean, and Brady Coulthard (D-Milwaukee) has also announced a bid for the seat.

• 18th AD: Margaret Arney (D-Milwaukee) launched her bid for the 18th AD. She is currently a Wauwatosa District 2 Common Council member. The 18th AD is an open seat under the new maps. The 18th AD is currently represented by Rep. Evan Goyke (D-Milwaukee) who was elected Milwaukee City Attorney this week. The new 18th AD has an 83.6% Democratic lean. If needed, the Democratic primary will be on August 13th, 2024.

• 88th AD: Small business owner and Air Force veteran Ben Franklin (R-De Pere) announced his bid for the 88th AD. His announcement came a few days after incumbent 88th AD Rep. John Macco (R-Ledgeview) said that he would not seek reelection. Under the new maps, Rep. Macco was paired with Rep. Shae Sortwell (R-Two Rivers) in the new 2nd AD. The new 88th AD has a 61% GOP lean. Mr. Franklin is the second Republican to enter the race for the 88th, joining public relations professional Phil Collins.

• 93rd AD: Christian Phelps (D-Eau Claire) announced his candidacy for the 93rd AD. The 93rd is currently held by Rep. Warren Petryk (R – Town of Washington), who was drawn into the district under the new maps as well. The district was previously a Republican leaning district, but under the new maps, the new 93rd has a 54.7% Democratic lean.

State Senate

• 2nd SD: Former journalist Kelly Peterson (D-De Pere) told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that she will run for the new 2nd SD. She is the first Democrat to join the race. Sen. Rob Cowles (R-Green Bay) and Sen. Eric Wimberger (R-Green Bay) have both already announced they will be running for the seat. The 2nd SD has a 62.8% GOP lean.

• 18th SD: Dr. Anthony Phillips (R-Appleton) launched his campaign for the 18th SD. The new 18th was left vacant from incumbents after Sen. Feyen (R – Fond du Lac) was drawn into the new 20th SD. The 18th SD has a 54.3% Democratic lean. Kristin Alfheim, Blong Yang, and Joseph Carman all have entered the race.

* Partisan Performance was calculated using the election results from the 2022 U.S. Senate election, the 2022 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election, and the 2020 Presidential Election.

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U.S. President

New poll from WSJ finds Biden and Trump tied

The Wall Street Journal released a new Wisconsin poll that found President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump tied at 46%. When third party candidates are included as an option, Biden receives 41%, Trump 38%, and Robert Kennedy Jr. 10%. Cornel West and Jill Stein each receive 1%.

The poll surveyed 600 Wisconsin registered voters by phone and text March 17-24. The poll was conducted by Fabrizio Lee and GBAO. FiveThirtyEight rates them 1.7 stars and 1.2 stars, respectively, on a three-star scale.

See the poll release.

Biden launches new TV ad

President Joe Biden released a new TV ad targeting former President Donald Trump’s abortion policy and said he doesn’t trust women. The Biden campaign said the ad is part of a $30 million buy targeting battleground states on national and local TV broadcasts. The ad will run during Milwaukee Brewers games and targets Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay while also running on streaming services statewide.

Watch the ad here.

RNC launches website critical of Biden

The Republican National Committee launched a website targeting President Biden’s border policy and said the president was “aiding and abetting an invasion.” The website is BidenBloodbath.com and includes videos praising former President Donald Trump while contrasting with Pres. Biden. The site also features memos on the Biden administration’s border policy and has dedicated web pages for 13 states, including Wisconsin, where it notes a 97% increase in fentanyl overdose deaths in the state from 2019-2021.

Climate Power runs digital ads favoring Biden

Climate Power released digital ads touting President Biden’s Clean Energy Plan. The multi-state campaign includes two ads with 15- and 30-second versions and will cost the group $100,000. One of the ads features Milwaukee homeowner Ramona saying the Clean Energy Plan helped pay for home insulation and reduce her utility bill.

Watch the 15-second “Saving Money” ad here.

Watch the 30-second “Saving Money” ad here.

Watch the 15-second “Future” ad here.

Watch the 30-second “Future” ad here.

Republican Voters Against Trump are running new ads

Republican Voters Against Trump ran ads on Tuesday in Green Bay critical of former President Donald Trump for the actions on January 6, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol. Former Pres. Trump visited Green Bay on Tuesday, and the ads will also run in Grand Rapids, Michigan where the former president also stopped. The group did not say how much was spent on the one-day campaign but did say the ads ran on Fox and other major broadcast news networks and YouTube.

Watch the ad here.

MU releases national poll

Marquette Law School released a national poll this week finding President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump tied at 50% among registered voters. When surveying likely voters, Pres. Biden has 52% support while former Pres. Trump has 48%. In February’s poll, Trump was at 51% with registered voters, and 52% among likely voters.

See the poll release.

The next Marquette Law School Wisconsin poll results will be released on April 17.

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U.S. Senate

Trump endorses Hovde

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde received former President Donald Trump’s “complete and total” endorsement during the former president’s Green Bay rally on Tuesday. Former Pres. Trump said of Mr. Hovde, “You have tremendous potential, and she’s a weak candidate,” referring to U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison). “If you lose to her, that’s not a good thing” the former president added.

Mr. Hovde spoke before former Pres. Trump, saying the country has “taken a beating” during Pres. Biden’s administration. He said Pres. Biden’s policies have led to a humanitarian crisis along the southern border, sent inflation skyrocketing, and decreased real wages. Mr. Hovde went on to say Sen. Baldwin has supported Pres. Biden and does anything the “hard left wants.”

Wisconsin Democratic Party spokesperson Arik Wolk responded, “Eric Hovde and Donald Trump are birds of a feather: two out of touch rich guys running to put themselves first and Wisconsinites last. From banning abortion, repealing the Affordable Care Act, and promoting MAGA conspiracies about January 6 and the 2020 election, Donald Trump and Eric Hovde won’t fight for Wisconsin values.”

Hovde raises at least $1 million since campaign launch

A spokesperson for U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde said he has raised more than $1 million since his campaign launch in February. They said the $1 million did not include Mr. Hovde’s personal contributions that he made to his campaign. FEC reports are due April 15 to cover the first quarter of 2024’s fundraising. The $1 million meets the threshold to be eligible for an endorsement for the state’s Republican Party but will be verified by FEC reports filed this month. Receiving the endorsements gives the candidates access to benefits like the party’s infrastructure. In 2022, the minimum was $100,000 to qualify for the party’s endorsement, increasing it this year ten times due to the expected cost to challenge U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D). For comparison, Sen. Baldwin finished last year with more than $8 million cash on hand.

Hovde launches new TV ad

GOP U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde released a new TV ad critical of President Biden and U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) for their “open border policy.” The campaign is running statewide but didn’t include any other details. In the ad, Mr. Hovde says, “Our country was already struggling to provide housing and health care to our citizens and tragically, we’re losing over 100,000 Americans a year to the drugs that pour over our open border,” and later promises, “I’ll work to fix this problem.”

Watch the ad here.

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U.S. House of Representatives

Dem joins 8th CD race

OB/GYN physician Kristin Lyerly (D-Green Bay) has announced she will run for Wisconsin’s 8th Congressional District. Dr. Lyerly, a Democrat from De Pere, said her campaign will focus on healthcare access. “As an OB/GYN, I have been attacked firsthand by MAGA extremists targeting a woman’s right to make her own health choices,” said Dr. Lyerly. “I will work tirelessly to ensure that every woman in our state has access to reproductive care, including safe and legal abortions, essential services like maternity care, and mental health support.” This won’t be Dr. Lyerly’s first political campaign. She previously challenged Rep. John Macco for the 88th Assembly District in 2020 and lost, receiving 48% of the vote to Rep. Macco’s 52%.

The race for the 8th CD has gained increased attention in recent weeks after Congressman Mike Gallagher announced he would not run for reelection and instead would resign from his seat effective April 19. So far, two Republicans — state Sen. Andrew Jacque and former state Sen. Roger Roth — have officially entered the race. A third GOP candidate with ties to former President Donald Trump, political consultant Alex Bruesewitz, has also floated a possible run.

The 8th CD is located in northeastern Wisconsin and has a marked GOP lean. Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels took 55.9% of the vote in the district in 2022 while U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson received 58.8% in the same year. In 2020, former President Trump won 57% of the vote in the district.

Opportunity Wisconsin launches new ad targeting Van Orden

Opportunity Wisconsin launched a new digital ad that is critical of U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) for allegedly siding with big corporations rather than farmers. The ad will run on digital platforms across the 3rd CD and are part of a previously announced seven-figure buy.

Watch the ad here.

Administration Updates

Evers takes action on bills

Governor Tony Evers (D) signed seven bills and vetoed two bills this week. He signed SB 222, which promotes pre-disaster flood resilience in Wisconsin communities, and AB 232, which requires school boards to include education on the contributions and history of Hmong Americans and Asian Americans in Wisconsin.

Below are the press releases for the passed bills:

• SB 222 which promotes flood resilience, click here.
• AB 232 which adds Hmong and American histories to K-12 school curriculum, click here.
• AB 558 which adds the Mount Horeb Veterans Memorial to state highway maps, click here.
• SB 399 which designates the USH 63 bridge, SB 452 which designates state Trunk Highway 128, and SB 668 which makes changes to DFI regulation, click here.
• AB 917 which bars the sale of certain unsafe lighters, click here.

One of Gov. Evers’ vetoes was SB 145, which would have created a new license for advanced practice registered nurses (ARPNs). Gov. Evers’ said he vetoed the bill because he opposes new licensure and practice standards for ARPNs.

Below are the press releases for the vetoed bills:

• AB 377 which would have prevented transgender and gender nonconforming youth from participating on school athletic teams that align with their gender identity, click here.
• SB 145’s veto message, click here.

Medicaid fund projected to end biennium with $30M surplus

Wisconsin’s Medicaid fund is projected to end the biennium with a surplus, although slightly less than previously forecasted. The Department of Health Services notified the Joint Finance Committee that Wisconsin is on track to spend more than $8.6 billion in general purpose revenue on the program. That number is $26 million less than was budgeted but slightly higher than what the agency reported three months ago, which would have resulted in a $56.5 million surplus.

The agency said increased enrollment was a factor in the higher spending. The state projects that certain elderly, disabled and blind populations will still be below the budgeted numbers. However, child enrollments are expected to be 5% higher than expected due to a new federal requirement for 12 months of continuous coverage of Medicaid children between their annual eligibility redeterminations. The report also listed other factors that contributed to the reduced surplus, such as an increase in fee-for-service expenditures for nursing homes and hospitals, as well as prescription drugs.