In this update:

• Upcoming Events
• ICYMI: MU Law School Poll Results
• Governor’s Race
• Post-Session Updates
• U.S. Senate Race
• 3rd Congressional District Race

Upcoming Events

Coffee with the Candidate: A Virtual Meet & Greet

Our third virtual meet & greet will take place next Friday, August 26th at 8:30 AM with Nik Rettinger, Republican candidate for Wisconsin’s 83rd Assembly District seat.

Nik Rettinger defeated his opponent in the August 9th Republican primary by capturing 58% of the total vote. He will not face an opponent in the November 8th general election.

The 83rd Assembly District is currently represented by State Representative Chuck Wichgers (R-Muskego). The new legislative maps adopted by the Wisconsin Supreme Court moved Rep. Wichgers out of his current district, the 83rd, and into the district currently represented by Ken Skowronski (R-Franklin). Rep. Skowronski announced his retirement earlier this year.

To receive the “Teams Meeting” invite, please RSVP to Chas Schellpeper at Chas.Schellpeper@michaelbest.com by Thursday, August 25th.

ICYMI: MU Law School Poll Results

The first Marquette University Law School Poll following the primary was released on Wednesday. Quick hits from the poll can be found below:

President Joe Biden Favorability -16%

• Favorability 40% (Was 42% in June poll)
• Unfavorability 56% (Was 54% in June poll)

President Joe Biden Job Approval -15%

• Approve 40% (Was 40% in June poll)
• Disapprove 55% (Was 57% in June poll)

Sen. Ron Johnson Favorability -9%

Note: 16% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

• Favorability 38% (Was 37% in June poll)
• Unfavorability 47% (Was 46% in June poll)

Governor Tony Evers Favorability +5%

• Favorability 46% (Was 44% in June poll)
• Unfavorability 41% (Was 42% in June poll)

Governor Tony Evers Job Approval +2%

• 47% Approve (Was 48% in June poll)
• 45% Disapprove (Was 45% in June poll)

Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes Favorability +15%

Note: 41% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

• Favorability 37% (Was 21% in June poll)
• Unfavorability 22% (Was 16% in June poll)

Tim Michels Favorability +0%

Note: 34% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion

• Favorability 33% (Was 22% in June poll)
• Unfavorability 33% (Was 22% in June poll)

Vote preference for Wisconsin governor among registered voters

• Tony Evers: 45%
• Tim Michels: 43%
• Joan Beglinger: 7%

Vote preference for U.S. Senate among registered voters

• Ron Johnson: 44%
• Mandela Barnes: 51%

Governor’s Race

Record Spending Expected in Wisconsin Elections

According to the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, a little more than $98 million was spent on the 2018 Wisconsin governor’s race.  This week, AdImpact, a media tracking group, projects that about $344,000,000 will be spent in races across Wisconsin during this election cycle, including $159,000,000 in the U.S. Senate race and $126,000,000 for the gubernatorial election. This projection is based off of historical spending levels and is adjusted for the costs of advertising in certain media markets and the amount of cash that candidates have on hand.

Furthermore, Jaime Harrison, the chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), said that the DNC has more than quadrupled its investment in Wisconsin for 2022 compared to the 2018 election cycle. Harrison called Wisconsin “one of the top battlegrounds in the nation.”

Similarly, Planned Parenthood Advocates of Wisconsin (PPAWI) and the PPAWI Political Fund announced the launching of a statewide electoral program to “elect sexual and reproductive rights champions.” The program is part of Planned Parenthood’s “Take Control” campaign, a nationwide $50,000,000 advocacy effort that is the largest electoral program in the group’s history. However, it is unknown exactly how much will be spent in Wisconsin.

DGA releases new ads targeting Michels 

The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) released a new television and digital ads this week which critical of Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels.

In an ad entitled “Yours,” the DGA ad criticizes Michels for his “radical, divisive agenda.”

Watch the ad here: https://youtu.be/WQwL9W51oDU

DGA also released two digital ads targeting Michels’ stance on guns, which the ad calls “too radical.”

Watch the 6-second version of the ad here: https://youtu.be/dLST47QJzew

Watch the 15-second version of the ad here: https://youtu.be/dLST47QJzew

Post-Session Updates

Evers announces $10 million grant program for clean drinking water access

Governor Tony Evers & the Department of Natural Resources announced this week a $10 million grant program which will be focused on expanding access to clean drinking water across the state. The program is aimed at supporting the replacement, reconstruction, treatment, or abandonment of contaminated private wells, and is based on the state’s Well Compensation Grant Program.

In his statement, Governor Evers said: “Whether it’s our kids in our schools, families cooking dinner, or our farmers who depend on conservation, every Wisconsinite deserves access to clean, safe water. Unfortunately, too many families across our state know firsthand how it feels to turn on the tap and not be able to trust what comes out, and many have had to rely on plastic water bottles for drinking water. So, I am glad to be making this investment today while getting rid of outdated and burdensome requirements that will help ensure more Wisconsinites clean up their wells and keep their families healthy and safe.”

JFC takes action on several items, allocates millions in funding

This week, the Joint Finance Committee (JFC) approved the distribution of millions in state funding on several different items.

Most notably, the JFC approved redirecting $21,000,000 in bonding to offset increased costs for Milwaukee County and Racine County as they construct new correctional facilities for young offenders. These detention centers are part of an effort to close two youth prisons, Lincoln Hills and Copper Lake, in northern Wisconsin. Former Governor Scott Walker and state lawmakers approved the closure of the two prisons in 2018, providing $80,000,000 in state funding to build two state-run type 1 facilities and new county-run centers. However, the funding was ultimately insufficient and the prisons’ closure was delayed.

State Sen. Mary Felzkowski (R-Irma) warned that the cost for the new type 1 facility may increase, as construction is not set to begin until mid-2024 at the earliest. The new prison is expected to take at least 18-24 months to complete, with an opening planned for early 2026.

In a press release, State Rep. Mark Born (R-Beaver Dam) and State Sen. Howard Marklein (R-Spring Green) — who are the JFC’s co-chairs — said that the move was “…one more important step toward fulfilling our promise to close Lincoln Hills/Copper Lake. The updated plan we approved, created in collaboration with the counties where the SRCCCYs will be located, will redistribute funding so these projects are able to move forward and bring those at Lincoln Hills/Copper Lake closer to their support systems.”

The JFC approved several other items:

• About $3,300,000 to the Wisconsin Department of Transportation’s (WisDOT) to increase its expenditure authority in covering the costs of issuing new license plates.
• $109,200 to the Wisconsin Arts Board to meet grant matching requirements for funds from the National Endowment for the Arts.
• $2,400,000 for a commercial nitrogen optimization pilot program to improve watershed quality, as well as crop insurance premium rebates.
• $558,400 for the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection (DATCP) to cover the costs of promoting agricultural exports, as the agency had been directed to undertake the effort under a previous law.
• $2,500,000 to the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR) to remediate electronics waste.

Read the Section 13.10 Meeting Agenda here

JFC co-chairs announce intent to change plans for opioid settlement funds

State Rep. Mark Born (R-Beaver Dam) and State Sen. Howard Marklein (R-Spring Green), the co-chairs of the Joint Finance Committee (JFC), announced that they plan to make changes for the state’s plan for opioid settlement funds. The state received an initial payment of $6,000,000 at the beginning of August, with a total of $31,000,000 being sent to the state this year. Over $400,000,000 from the settlement is going to Wisconsin.

While it is unclear what changes the co-chairs have in mind, they said they have been working to ensure that funds are going to “impactful programs without duplicating our efforts.” In the press release, they said they will “…swiftly improve our plans to distribute these funds to help combat the opioid crisis that continues to ravage our state.’”

The Wisconsin Department of Health Services (DHS) recently submitted their updated proposal to JFC for how the funds should be spent. The proposal included using the funding for a variety of mitigation, treatment, and recovery efforts.

Governor Tony Evers and Attorney General Josh Kaul criticized Rep. Born and Sen. Marklein for their decision, saying that it would delay the distribution of funds “…that could be immediately invested to combat the opioid epidemic across Wisconsin.”

State appeals court stays ruling on JFC settlement law

The Waukesha-based 2nd District Court of Appeals has stayed a ruling from the Dane County Circuit Court which found a law concerning Wisconsin Department of Justice (DOJ) settlements unconstitutional. The circuit court’s ruling will be stayed while it is appealed, as the appellate court ruled that the circuit court had failed to properly follow guidance from the Wisconsin Supreme Court in declining to stay the ruling while it was appealed.

The Dane County Circuit Court found that the law, which was passed during the 2018 lame-duck session and gives lawmakers on the Joint Finance Committee (JFC) the final say over some settlements that are reached by the DOJ — was unconstitutional because the JFC is given a veto over settlements without an override mechanism to check legislative authority. This decision applied to certain enforcement cases, including consumer and environmental protection and civil actions on behalf of executive agencies.

While the Wisconsin Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the law last year in a 4-3 decision, they said that their ruling was limited because the lawsuit claimed that the statutes were constitutional in any circumstances. It also did not provide any examples of how the laws have been applied. In contrast, the lawsuit that is before the appeals court raises different issues with the law.

Wisconsin PFAS Action Council releases 2022 progress report

This week, the Wisconsin PFAS Action Council released its 2022 PFAS Action Plan Progress Report. The Council was created in 2019 by Governor Tony Evers and charged with developing a state action plan to respond to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in Wisconsin. The 2022 PFAS Action Plan Progress Report provides updates on PFAS action under the Evers Administration to date as well as recommendations for continued, future action.

In a press release announcing the report, Gov. Evers said “ensuring folks have clean, safe water to drink is as much of a public health issue as it is an environmental issue and an economic issue. From a volunteer fire department working to remove PFAS foam from its storage to a local water utility applying for a grant to upgrade its system to ensure local residents have safe water flowing from their tap, we’re making investments and taking critical steps to take action on PFAS across Wisconsin.”

The Wisconsin PFAS Action Plan includes 25 recommended action items categorized into eight themes: standard setting, sampling, pollution prevention, education and communication, research and knowledge, phase-out, future investments and historic discharges. The 2022 report outlines steps taken and progress made by the Evers Administration to address PFAS contamination since December 2020, when the Wisconsin PFAS Action Plan was released, including:

• Collecting PFAS-containing Firefighting Foam Waste
• Sampling Municipal Water Systems
• Establishing the Office of Environmental Justice
• Initiating Legal Action Against Major Chemical Companies

More information on the PFAS Action Plan, the Progress Report, and the Council can be found at the DNR’s Wisconsin PFAS Action Council (WisPAC) webpage.

U.S. Senate Race

Fox News poll finds Barnes with slight lead

A poll conducted by Fox News under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R) found that Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes carries a narrow lead over incumbent U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), with 50% of respondents saying they would vote for Barnes if the election was held today and 46% saying that they would vote for Johnson.

66% of Johnson’s supporters said they enthusiastically support him, compared to 57% of Barnes’ supporters. However, 23% of Johnson’s supporters said that they had reservations in their support, compared to 15% of Barnes’ supporters. 27% of Barnes’ supporters said their support of him was because they disliked Johnson, compared to 8% of Johnson’s supporters who said the opposite. In these samples, Barnes’ supporters had a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points and Johnson’s supporters had a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

The race is tied among those who are “extremely” motivated to vote in November, with 49% for each. Barnes has a slight lead of 2 points among those who feel certain they will vote. Barnes maintains strong leads among moderates (+37 points), suburban women (+30 points), voters ages 65 and older (+23 points), and voters with a college degree (+16 points). Barnes also has greater party loyalty, as 96% of Democrats back him compared to 91% of Republicans who back Johnson. Independents also favor Barnes by a two-to-one margin.

Daron Shaw, the Republican pollster who conducted the poll along with Democrat Chris Anderson, said that Barnes has cut into Johnson’s support in the exurban and rural areas of Wisconsin. He said that Johnson will need to regain voters in both these areas, as well as improve his margins with suburban women.

The poll was conducted between August 12th and 16th and surveyed 1,006 registered voters. Respondents were randomly selected from a statewide voter file and were contacted on both landlines and cellphones. The entire sample had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. FiveThirtyEight gives Beacon/Shaw an “A” grade in their pollster ratings.

Johnson calls Barnes “dangerously liberal on crime” in new ad

U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) has released a new advertisement that frames his opponent, Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, as being soft on crime. Johnson’s campaign did not disclose how much they were spending on the ad nor which markets it would be released in, but it say that the ad will be run on both digital and television platforms. The ad was released in coordination with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC).

The ad is the first one released by Johnson’s campaign since Barnes won the Democratic primary. The ad links Barnes to members of “The Squad,” a group of progressive representatives who have called to “defund the police” in recent years. The narrator claims that Barnes “…would eagerly join their squad.”

The ad also says that Barnes wanted to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), showing a picture of him with a t-shirt carrying the slogan. It also claims that Barnes wants to “open our borders to illegal immigrants” and “release violent felons without bail.”

Pro-Johnson group releases new ad

Wisconsin Truth PAC — a backer of U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) — added another $1,400,000 to its independent expenditures in an ad targeting Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, the Democratic nominee

The new buy instead opposes Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, the Democratic nominee, and links Barnes to three members of “The Squad,” a left-wing group of congressional representatives. The ad also implies that Barnes supports “amnesty for drug traffickers” and “radical ideas funded by the taxpayers.”

In total, the group has spent $10,700,000 in 2022, although all buys until now have been in support of Johnson. The group has received $6,500,000 from billionaire Diane Hendricks and a combined $3,500,000 from Liz and Dick Uihlein.

Barnes releases first ad since primary election victory

Current Lieutenant Governor and Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate Mandela Barnes is out with his first ad since his primary election victory August 9th. His campaign said the spot is part of a multi-million dollar buy on broadcast, cable and digital that will run throughout the state.

The ad open with Barnes going through a school cafeteria line. “After every election we get handed the same thing — and none of it’s good,” Barnes says as the lunch server plops food on his tray. “I say we change things up,” he adds. The spot then shows Barnes walking through a school hallway recounting his familial background; his mom was a teacher and his dad worked third shift. Barnes then calls for middle-class tax cuts and making things in Wisconsin as he picks up a stack of pizzas from a delivery man. The spot then shows Barnes delivering the pizzas to kids in a cafeteria where he says “if we want to change Washington, we’ve got to change the people we send there.”

Barnes will face off against incumbent Senator Ron Johnson in the November 8th general election.

DSCC releases ad on Johnson’s insulin cap vote

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is out with a new digital ad this week targeting Republican Sens. Ron Johnson and Marco Rubio over their votes opposing a $35 per month cap on out-of-pocket insulin costs for patients with private insurance. The ad features a photo of Rubio, Johnson and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell with a caption reading “Senate Republicans voted AGAINST insulin cap.”

The DSCC said the five-figure digital campaign will reach voters interested in prescription drugs on news, law, and politics websites and will direct individuals to a webpage with additional information about Johnson and Rubio’s vote. “Senate Republicans like Johnson and Rubio cast an ugly vote against a popular policy that will lower the cost of insulin for Americans. Johnson and Rubio showed they care more about their Big Pharma political donors than lowering costs for working families — and voters will hold them accountable in November,” DSCC spokesperson Nora Keefe said in a statement.

Both Johnson and Rubio are up for re-election in the fall general election.

See the ad here

3rd Congressional District Race

Former Navy Seal and Republican candidate for Wisconsin’s Third Congressional District Derrick Van Orden released a new TV ad this week criticizing President Joe Biden and his administration’s handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal in August 2021. Van Orden’s campaign declined to say how much was spent on the buy, but did say the spot would run on TV and digital in La Crosse and Eau Claire.

The ad opens with scenes of chaos as Afghans are shown desperately trying to climb aboard U.S. military aircraft in Kabul. The spot transitions to Van Orden who says “like you a year ago, I was disgusted when Biden fled Afghanistan. Today I’m still pissed.” Van Orden goes on to say “Biden’s failed America. Thirteen of my brothers and sisters are dead and thousands of Americans and our allies abandoned to the Taliban. No one’s been held accountable. No one’s been fired. It’s not a partisan issue — it’s just wrong. And I will never apologize for protecting American citizens.”

Van Orden will face State Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-Onalaska) in the November 8th general election.