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Quick Hits on the Poll
President Joe Biden Favorability -13%
- Favorability 41% (Was 42% in September poll)
- Unfavorability 54% (Was 54% in September poll)
President Joe Biden Job Approval -13%
- Approve 42% (Was 40% in September poll)
- Disapprove 55% (Was 55% in September poll)
Sen. Ron Johnson Favorability -4%
Note: 5% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
- Favorability 41% (Was 39% in September poll)
- Unfavorability 45% (Was 47% in September poll)
Governor Tony Evers Favorability -2%
- Favorability 44% (Was 45% in September poll)
- Unfavorability 46% (Was 45% in September poll)
Governor Tony Evers Job Approval -2%
- 46% Approve (Was 44% in September poll)
- 48% Disapprove (Was 47% in September poll)
Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes Favorability -1%
Note: 6% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
- Favorability 39% (Was 33% in September poll)
- Unfavorability 40% (Was 32% in September poll)
Tim Michels Favorability +0%
Note: 8% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
- Favorability 36% (Was 34% in September poll)
- Unfavorability 36% (Was 39% in September poll)
Vote preference for Wisconsin governor among likely voters
- Tony Evers: 46% (Was 47% in September poll)
- Tim Michels: 45% (Was 44% in September poll)
- Joan Beglinger: 4% (Was 5% in September poll)
Vote preference for Wisconsin governor among registered voters
- Tony Evers: 46% (Was 44% in September poll)
- Tim Michels: 41% (Was 43% in September poll)
- Joan Beglinger: 6% (Was 8% in September poll)
Vote preference for U.S. Senate among likely voters
- Ron Johnson: 52% (Was 49% in September poll)
- Mandela Barnes: 45% (Was 48% in September poll)
Vote preference for U.S. Senate among registered voters
- Ron Johnson: 46% (Was 48% in September poll)
- Mandela Barnes: 46% (Was 47% in September poll)
Background on the Survey
Marquette University Law School released their October poll this Wednesday. Below, please find the methodology of the poll as released by the Law School in their press release:
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The poll interviewed 801 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone between October 3 to 9, 2022. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points for the full sample. The margin of error for likely voters is +/- 4.8 percentage points
The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45% Republican, 44% Democratic, and 9% independent. Excluding those who lean to a party, the partisan makeup of the sample is 30% Republican, 29% Democratic and 40% independent.
Complete results can be found here:
- Registered Voter Toplines
- Likely Voter Toplines
- Registered Voter Crosstabs
- Likely Voter Crosstabs
- Press Release
National Politics
President Joe Biden Favorability -13%
- Favorability 41% (Was 42% in September poll)
- Unfavorability 54% (Was 54% in September poll)
President Joe Biden Job Approval -13%
- Approve 42% (Was 40% in September poll)
- Disapprove 55% (Was 55% in September poll)
President Joe Biden
The MU Law School Poll found that 42% of registered voters approve of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president, and 55% disapprove of the way he is handling his job, a net -13% in job approval.
For comparison, in the last MU Law School survey in September 2022, 40% of registered voters approved of the job the president was doing and 55% disapproved of the way he was handling the job, a net -15% approval. These numbers are identical to the August poll.
President Biden’s personal favorability tracks very similar to his job approval with 41% of registered voters having a favorable opinion of him and 54% having an unfavorable opinion of him, a net -13% favorability. Those numbers are similar to the September poll, which found that 42% of registered voters had a favorable opinion of the President and 54% had an unfavorable opinion, a net -12% favorability.
Among voters who identified as Democratic or leaning Democratic, Biden is viewed favorably by 82% and unfavorably by 13%. Independents were 24% favorable and 56% unfavorable, while Republicans and leaning Republicans were 5% favorable and 92% unfavorable.
President Donald Trump Favorability -18%
- Favorability 37% (Was 38% in September poll)
- Unfavorability 55% (Was 58% in September poll)
Trump Favorability
President Biden’s -13% net favorability is better than former President Trump’s favorability, which now sits at a -18% net favorability in the latest poll.
Among voters who identified as Republican or leaning Republican, Trump is viewed favorably by 70% and unfavorably by 22%. Independents were 22% favorable and 49% unfavorable, while Democrats were 6% favorable and 92% unfavorable.
Sen. Ron Johnson Favorability -4%
Note: 5% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
- Favorability 41% (Was 39% in September poll)
- Unfavorability 45% (Was 47% in September poll)
US Senator Ron Johnson (R-Oshkosh):
41% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Republican US Senator Ron Johnson and 45% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Johnson’s net favorability has improved to -4%, up from the net -8% favorability that he had in the September poll.
About 77% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 26% of Independents and 8% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
About 11% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 40% of Independents and 82% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin Favorability +0%
Note: 19% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
- Favorability 36% (Was 37% in September poll)
- Unfavorability 36% (Was 40% in September poll)
36% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Democratic US Senator Tammy Baldwin and 36% have and unfavorable opinion of her. Sen. Baldwin’s net favorability increased between the September and August polls by 3 percentage points.
About 69% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 16% of Independents and 9% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
About 8% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had an unfavorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 26% of Independents and 66% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes Favorability -1%
Note: 6% of Registered Voters did not register an opinion
- Favorability 39% (Was 33% in September poll)
- Unfavorability 40% (Was 32% in September poll)
39% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Democratic Lt. Governor and US Senate candidate Mandela Barnes and 40% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Barnes’ net favorability decreased 1 percentage point between the September and October polls, going from +0% to -1%.
About 76% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Barnes, compared to 25% of Independents and 6% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
About 5% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had an unfavorable opinion of Barnes, compared to 32% of Independents and 75% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
State Politics
Governor Tony Evers Favorability -2%
- Favorability 44% (Was 45% in September poll)
- Unfavorability 46% (Was 45% in September poll)
Governor Tony Evers Job Approval -2%
- 46% Approve (Was 44% in September poll)
- 48% Disapprove (Was 47% in September poll)
44% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Governor Evers and 46% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Evers’ net favorability decreased 2 percentage points between the September and October polls, going from +0% to -2%.
84% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Evers, compared to 35% of independents and 8% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
84% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of Evers, compared to 38% of independents and 8% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
Governor Tony Evers’ job approval has slightly increased with 46% of registered voters saying they approve of the job Governor Evers is doing and 48% saying they disapprove (-2% net approval). This is a plus 1-point swing since the September survey when 44% said they approved and 47% disapproved of the job Gov. Evers was doing (a net -3% approval).
When only looking at those with the most intense opinions, 27% of respondents said they strongly approved of the job Governor Evers was doing compared to 38% who said they strongly disapproved.
84% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they approved of Evers, compared to 37% of Independents and 12% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
83% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they disapproved of Evers, compared to 46% of Independents and 11% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
2022 Elections
Respondents were asked “if the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Tony Evers the Democrat, or Tim Michels the Republican, and Joan Beglinger, the independent, for whom would you vote?”
Vote preference for Wisconsin governor among likely voters
- Tony Evers: 46% (Was 47% in September poll)
- Tim Michels: 45% (Was 44% in September poll)
- Joan Beglinger: 4% (Was 5% in September poll)
Vote preference for Wisconsin governor among registered voters
- Tony Evers: 46% (Was 44% in September poll)
- Tim Michels: 41% (Was 43% in September poll)
- Joan Beglinger: 6% (Was 8% in September poll)
Respondents were asked “if the election for U.S. Senate were being held today and the candidates were Mandela Barnes the Democrat and Ron Johnson the Republican, for whom would you vote?”
Vote preference for U.S. Senate among likely voters
- Ron Johnson: 52% (Was 49% in September poll)
- Mandela Barnes: 45% (Was 48% in September poll)
Vote preference for U.S. Senate among registered voters
- Ron Johnson: 46% (Was 48% in September poll)
- Mandela Barnes: 46% (Was 47% in September poll)
State Issues
Right Direction-Wrong Track:
When asked “do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?” 31% of registered voters said Wisconsin is going in the right direction and 63% said it is on the “wrong track.”
Views largely broke down along partisan lines:
- Republican/lean Republican: 11% right direction | 87% wrong track
- Democrat/lean Democrat: 51% right direction | 39% wrong track
- Independent: 36% right direction | 56% wrong track
In September 2022, 40% said that Wisconsin was going in the right direction and 53% said it was on the wrong track. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, 61% said it was going in the right direction and 30% said it was on the wrong track.
According to the poll, inflation remains the issue Wisconsin voters are most concerned about. 93% of registered voters said they were concerned about inflation.
Likelihood of Voting:
When asked “what are the chances that you will vote in the November 2022 general election for governor, Congress, and other offices?” 76% of registered voters said they were absolutely certain to vote with 82% of Republicans and leaning Republicans and 75% of Democrats and leaning Democrats saying they were absolutely certain to vote.
Broken down by geographic region in Wisconsin, 63% of registered voters in the city of Milwaukee said they were very absolutely certain to vote compared to 72% in Madison, 83% in suburban Milwaukee, 73% in Green Bay/Appleton, and 77% in the rest of the state.
Policy Issues
Registered voters were asked to rate how concerned they are with a variety of issues. Inflation ranks as the top issue of concern with 68% of registered voters saying they were “very concerned” followed by public schools at 60%, gun violence at 60%, and abortion policy at 60%.
Partisan affiliation has a clear impact on whether a registered voter is very concerned about a particular issue. The top three issues that Republicans are very concerned about are inflation (81%), illegal immigration (74%), and crime (74%). Democrats, on the other hand, are very concerned about abortion policy (81%), gun violence (78%), and public schools (53%). Independents are very concerned about public schools (71%), inflation (69%), and gun violence (58%).
Inflation
Inflation remains the issue Wisconsin voters are most concerned about. When asked, “how concerned are you about inflation?” 93% of registered voters said they were very or somewhat concerned.
*Respondents who lean towards a party are considered partisans
Very concerned: 68% (GOP: 86% | Independents: 71% | Dems: 48%)
Somewhat concerned: 25% (GOP: 12% | Independents: 20% | Dems: 40%)
Not too concerned: 5% (GOP: 1% | Independents: 5% | Dems: 10%)
Not at all concerned: 1% (GOP: 0% | Independents: 4% | Dems: 2%)
