In this update:
- Strategies Election Toolkit
- Special Election Night Alert Service
- Campaign Finance Roundup
- Governor’s Race
- Attorney General’s Race
- Legislative Races
- U.S. Senate Race
- Upcoming Events
- Fundraising Opportunities
Strategies Election Toolkit
Michael Best Strategies is pleased to share our Election Toolkit. The
Toolkit contains several resources the Strategies team created to help our clients and friends navigate state and federal races in Wisconsin. Please access each resource to get a comprehensive look at Wisconsin’s current balance of power and how those dynamics could shift in the wake of the November 8th General Elections. Click the links below to view each tool in the Election Toolkit.
2022 Gubernatorial Candidates by the Issues
Pre-election Look at Most Competitive Legislative Races
MU Law School Poll — November 2, 2022 Polling Update
Michael Best Strategies Elections Hub
Special Election Night Alert Service
Want comprehensive, as it happens, Election Night Updates?
The Michael Best Strategies Federal team is offering a Special Election Night Alert Service. As part of the service, they will send a Wisconsin specific digest that will cover the Governor, House, Senate and State races and also a 50 State Digest which includes results from all Governor, Senate, and House races. This will be sorted by state so you can easily find the races that matter most to you. Alerts will be sent every half hour from 6 PM – 8 PM central and then every hour from 8 PM – 10 PM central. On Wednesday, you’ll receive two more emails with updates, one at 7 AM central and 3 PM central. These would be in addition to the comprehensive Capitol Insights Newsletter updates you will receive on Election Night and the day after Election Day.
If you are interested in the Special Election Night Alert Service, this is an opt-in, so please send Chas Shellpeper an email and he will sign you up.
*Email Chas at Chas.Schellpeper@michaelbest.com to sign up*
Campaign Finance Roundup
Governor’s Race
Fall Pre-Election 2022 Reporting Period (Sep. 1 – Oct. 24)
Tony Evers
$ Raised: $11.9 million
$ Spent: $16.9 million
Cash on Hand: $1.2 million
Tim Michels
$ Raised: $8.8 million
$ Spent: $9.5 million
Cash on Hand: $531,472
Key Insights
In the final look at fundraising numbers before the November general election, Democratic Governor Tony Evers reported that he had out-raised his opponent GOP gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels by just over $3 million. The most recent reporting period, which ran from September 1 – October 24, saw Evers raise $11.9 million, spend $16.9 million, and have $1.2 million in cash on hand. Evers largest contribution was a $5.6 million transfer from the state Democratic party, bringing the party’s total contributions to Evers since 2021 to $14 million. Michels raised $8.8 million, spent $9.5 million, and had $531,472 cash on hand to finish the reporting period. Michels largest contributor was the state Republican party, which gave Michels $3.3 million during the contribution period. Michels also gave himself $2 million during that same period and also gave himself an additional $1 million after the reporting period closed, bringing his total personal investment in the race to over $18.7 million.
The disparity in cash between the two candidates is carrying over to paid media spending in the final days of the race. According to AdImpact, Democrats are poised to spend $6.6 million compared to $3.9 million by Republicans. Nearly $124 million has been spent on the race for governor since the beginning of 2021.
Attorney General’s Race
Fall Pre-Election 2022 Reporting Period (Sep. 1 – Oct. 24)
Josh Kaul
$ Raised: $1.4 million
$ Spent: $2.5 million
Cash on Hand: $1.2 million
Eric Toney
$ Raised: $526,194
$ Spent: $305,334
Cash on Hand: $341,609
Key Insights
Democratic AG Josh Kaul raised $1.4 million between September 1 and October 24. Committee contributions accounted for $632,890 of Kaul’s receipts with $411,967 coming from the state Democratic Party. Kaul spent $2.5 million and finished the reporting period with $1.2 million in the bank. On the Republican side, GOP AG candidate Eric Toney raised $526,194 between September 1 and October 24. Committee contributions accounted for $152,916 of Toney’s receipts with $111,699 coming from the state Republican Party. Toney spent $305,334 and finished the reporting period with $341,609 in the bank. Altogether, Kaul outspent Toney nearly 8:1 over the past two months.
Governor’s Race
New polls released in Governor’s Race
Five new polls released this week continue to show a tight race for governor. A new MU Law School Poll found Democratic Governor Tony Evers had the support of 48% of likely voters while his GOP rival Tim Michels was backed by 48%. The poll of 679 likely voters was conducted October 24 – November 1 using landline or cell phone and has a margin of error of +/- 4.8%. FiveThirtyEight rates MU Law School an A/B pollster.
A new Siena College poll found 47% of likely voters supported Evers while 45% backed Michels. The poll of 655 likely voters was conducted October 27-31 via cell phone and landline calls. The margin of error is +/- 4.8%. FiveThirtyEight rates Siena an A pollster.
A new Wick Insights poll found 47.5% of likely voters supported Michels while 47.2% backed Evers. The poll of 1,089 likely voters was conducted October 26-30 using a combination of text-to-web and landline calls. The margin of error is +/- 3.2%. FiveThirtyEight rates Wick an A/B pollster.
A new Fox News poll found 48% of respondents who said they have already voted or are certain to vote supported Michels while 47% backed Evers. The poll of 1,000 registered voters was conducted October 26-30 using landline or cell phone. The margin of error for respondents who said they have already voted or are certain to vote is +/- 3%. FiveThirtyEight rates Wick an A/B pollster.
A new Emerson College poll found 48% of likely voters supported Michels while 47% backed Evers. The poll of 1,000 likely voters voters was conducted October 27-29 using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, and education, based on 2022 turnout modeling. The margin of error is +/- 3%. FiveThirtyEight rates Emerson College an A- pollster.
Evers releases new TV ad
Governor Tony Evers (D-Plymouth) released a new TV ad this week saying he’ll “always try to do the right thing” as governor. Although additional details on the spot were not available, according to AdImpact, Evers has $2.4 million in paid media reserved for the final week of the campaign.
Watch the ad here: “The Right Thing”
Michels releases two new TV ads
GOP gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels released two new TV ads this week. The first ad — which is airing in the Green Bay, La Crosse and Wausau markets — features Michels promising to “turn Madison upside down.” The second ad also features the construction executive promising to lower taxes, make communities safer, and improve public schools. According to AdImpact, Michels has more than $1 million reserved on paid media for the final week of the race.
Watch the first ad here: Make Wisconsin Great
Watch the second ad here: Hop In
DGA ad opposes Michels’ election bid
The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) released a new ad this week through its affiliate Alliance for Common Sense highlighting sexual harassment allegations made against the Michels Corp under GOP gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels leadership. According to AdImpact, the spot is airing in the Milwaukee, Green Bay, Wausau and La Crosse-Eau Claire markets.
Watch the ad here: Allegations
RGA ad opposes Evers’ re-election bid
The Republican Governors Association (RGA) released a new ad this week through its affiliate ACC Wisconsin that claims Governor Tony Evers (D-Plymouth) had made Wisconsin less safe and wants to increase taxes on working families. Additional details on the spot were not available.
Watch the ad here: Has Failed
Evergreen Action ad supports Evers’ renewable energy plan
Climate change advocacy group Evergreen Action launched a new ad this week in the Madison market praising Governor Tony Evers’ (D-Plymouth) plan to boost clean energy production, lower power bills, grow the economy, and create jobs. According to AdImpact, the group is spending $246,000 on the TV spot.
Watch the ad here: In Every Corner
Wisconsin RINO Hunters ads oppose Michels, support Beglinger
According to an independent expenditure filing with the state Ethics Commission, a Washington, D.C.-based group calling itself Wisconsin RINO Hunters spent $624,540 on digital advertising and mailers opposing GOP gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels’ bid for election. The ads claim Joan Beglinger is the “true conservative choice” and that Michels “lied about an NRA endorsement” and “flip-flopped on abortion.” According to the filing, the group’s treasurer is Mike McCauley, of McCauley & Associates, an accounting firm specializing in political compliance services. The firm’s website says McCauley has worked for several state Republican parties and also served as Utah Republican Party’s treasurer for 13 years.
See the ads: Ad Library (facebook.com)
IRG Action Fund advocacy campaign opposes Evers’ education policies
The Sunrise in America Political Fund released a new ad this week that links Governor Tony Evers to President Joe Biden. The ad is part of a $500,000 spend and is running in the La Crosse and Eau Claire markets on broadcast, cable TV, and radio. The ad states that things have been bad under Biden and Evers, but it will only get worse because “winter is coming” and heating bills are expected to go up 28%. The ad says this is an extra burden on Wisconsinites who are already dealing with inflationary pain at the pump, grocery checkout, and on rent.
Attorney General’s Race
Retired state DOJ investigators oppose Kaul, support Toney in open letter
This week a group of 15 retired state Department of Justice (DOJ) criminal investigators, some with GOP ties, released an open letter opposing Democratic AG Josh Kaul’s bid for re-election while endorsing his Republican opponent Eric Toney for Wisconsin’s “top cop” job. The letter is signed by former Department of Corrections Secretary Gary Hamblin, two former DCI administrators and a dozen former DCI special agents. The letter claims Kaul has been “a disaster for law enforcement and has mismanaged the Office of the Attorney General.” The group also claims Kaul has politicized support for law enforcement and points to the high crime rate, among other purported failures, as an example of Kaul’s poor leadership.
In response to the letter, Kaul campaign spokesman Joe Oslund said Toney is “desperate for the facts to match his narrative.” “As AG, integrity matters, and Wisconsinites expect their Attorney General to be right on the facts and clear about where they stand,” Oslund said. “Eric Toney has demonstrated repeatedly he is capable of neither.”
Kaul ad claims Toney is “unfit to be attorney general”
A new ad from Democratic AG Josh Kaul describes a case handled by his GOP opponent and Fond du Lac DA Eric Toney in which a repeat offender was given low bail and subsequently murdered a firefighter. Kaul’s ad claims that Toney is “unfit to be attorney general” because Toney told the judge the nine-time felon “didn’t have much of a record.” Additional details on the spot were not available. However, according to AdImpact, Kaul and the Democratic Attorneys General Association have $1.7 million reserved on paid media for the final week of the race.
Watch the ad here: Botched
RAGA ads claim crime has “soared” under Kaul’s watch
The Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) launched two new TV ads in the Milwaukee market this week touting GOP AG candidate Eric Toney and opposing incumbent Democratic AG Josh Kaul’s re-election bid. The first ad claims crime in the state has “soared” under Kaul’s leadership while the second ad says Toney is the “right choice” for AG. According to AdImpact, Toney and RAGA are poised to spend just under $900,000 on paid media over the final week of the race.
Watch the first ad here: Soared
Watch the second ad here: Vote Toney
Legislative Races
Dems look to 31st SD to prevent GOP supermajority
According to a recent report from WisPolitics.com, the state Democratic Party and Senate Dems have directed four times the amount of resources into state Sen. Jeff Smith’s (D-Brunswick) 31st Senate District campaign as they have for their three Dem candidates in other closely-watched Senate races in the 9th, 19th, and 25th SD. For Republicans to gain a supermajority in the Senate, they need to net one seat in this fall’s elections. To prevent that two-thirds majority, Democrats are looking to either defend Smith’s 31st SD seat, defend the open 25th SD seat, or flip a current GOP seat in the 9th or 19th SD.
According to a recent filing with the state Ethics Commission, Smith raised $467,270, spent $652,049 and had $15,992 in the bank to end the reporting period that ran from September 1 — October 24. The State Senate Democratic Committee (SSDC) accounted for $211,656 in donations and in-kind contributions during the reporting period and also donated an additional $122,000 since the period closed. Smith reported $47,399 in in-kind donations from the state Democrats during the pre-election period.
Smith’s GOP opponent Dave Estenson raised $212,338, spent $226,632, and had $40,372 to end the reporting period. He also reported $165,826 in in-kind donations from the Committee to Elect a Republican Senate and the state GOP. Estenson reported an additional $160,645 from both groups in in-kind donations since the period closed.
An analysis of the new legislative maps says the 21st SD is a 53% Dem district during the gubernatorial cycle. Governor Tony Evers (D-Plymouth) captured 53% of the votes in the district during the 2018 governor’s race.
U.S. Senate Race
New polls released in U.S. Senate race
Five new polls released this week continue to show a tight race for U.S. Senate. A new MU Law School Poll found Republican U.S. Senator Ron Johnson had the support of 50% of likely voters while his Democratic rival Mandela Barnes was backed by 48%. The poll of 679 likely voters was conducted October 24 – November 1 using landline or cell phone and has a margin of error of +/- 4.8%. FiveThirtyEight rates MU Law School an A/B pollster.
A new Siena College poll found 47% of likely voters supported Johnson while 45% backed Barnes. The poll of 655 likely voters was conducted October 27-31 via cell phone and landline calls. The margin of error is +/- 4.8%. FiveThirtyEight rates Siena an A pollster.
A new Wick Insights poll found 50% of likely voters supported Johnson while 46% backed Barnes. The poll of 1,089 likely voters was conducted October 26-30 using a combination of text-to-web and landline calls. The margin of error is +/- 3.2%. FiveThirtyEight rates Wick an A/B pollster.
A new Fox News poll found 48% of respondents who said they have already voted or are certain to vote supported Johnson while 46% backed Barnes. The poll of 1,000 registered voters was conducted October 26-30 using landline or cell phone. The margin of error for respondents who said they have already voted or are certain to vote is +/- 3%. FiveThirtyEight rates Wick an A/B pollster.
A new Emerson College poll found 51% of likely voters supported Johnson while 46% backed Barnes. The poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 27-29 using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, and education, based on 2022 turnout modeling. The margin of error is +/- 3%. FiveThirtyEight rates Emerson College an A- pollster.
Barnes’ campaign releases internal poll
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mandel Barnes’ campaign released a new internal poll this week that showed the Lt. Governor had the support of 48% of likely voters while his opponent U.S. Senator Ron Johnson (R-Oshkosh) was backed by 46%. Of those polled, 6% were still undecided. The poll of 888 likely voters voters was conducted by Clarity Campaign Labs October 27-31 using a mix of automated calls to landlines and live calls to cellphones. The margin of error is +/- 3.3%. FiveThirtyEight rates Clarity Campaign Labs a B/C pollster.
Barnes speaks to Milwaukee Rotary luncheon
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes spoke to a gathering of the Rotary Club of Milwaukee this week. The incumbent Lt. Governor spoke about his background and what motivated him to run for office. Barnes was critical of his opponent U.S. Senator Ron Johnson (R-Oshkosh) for his record while in office. Barnes pointed to tax breaks Johnson pushed that benefited some of his donors, as well as Johnson’s support for raising the retirement age and including Social Security and Medicare in the discretionary budget as reasons the two-term senator should not be re-elected. “We’re talking about a senator whose had 12 years to work for working people, but has turned his back every single time,” Barnes said. Barnes also claimed Johnson would “stoop to disgusting lows” to win re-election.
In response to Barnes’ remarks at the luncheon, Johnson campaign spokesman Ben Voelkel said Barnes is “an extreme partisan and career politician who has nothing to run on but personal insults and attacks on Ron’s family.” Voelkel added that Barnes “should take a look in the mirror if he wants to know about disgusting lows.”
Watch the speech here
Johnson says he’s tired of “division and anger” in latest ad
U.S. Senator Ron Johnson’s (R-Oshkosh) latest ad features the two-term senator raking leaves while asking viewers if they are tired of the division and anger. Johnson then promises to “do everything I can to help make things better and…always tell you the truth.” According to AdImpact, Barnes and his Democratic backers have $5.8 million reserved on paid media for the final week of the race compared to Johnson and his GOP allies who have $7.2 million reserved. More than $177.3 million has been spent on broadcast, cable TV, radio, digital and satellite so far, making Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race the fourth most expensive in the nation.
Watch the ad here: Enormous Challenges
Barnes ad claims Johnson “looks out for himself, not us”
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes released a new ad this week that claims U.S. Senator Ron Johnson’s (R-Oshkosh) business paid no state income taxes for seven years and his family trust fund paid no state income taxes since 2016. According to AdImpact, Barnes and his Democratic backers have $5.8 million reserved on paid media for the final week of the race compared to Johnson and his GOP allies who have $7.2 million reserved. More than $177.3 million has been spent on broadcast, cable TV, radio, digital and satellite so far, making Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race the fourth most expensive in the nation.
Watch the ad here: Think
Wisconsin Truth PAC ad claims Barnes will increase taxes on working families
Wisconsin Truth PAC released a new ad this week that claims Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes wants “higher taxes and IRS audits for you,” and “unpaid taxes for him.” The conservative advocacy group has $2 million reserved on paid media for the final week of the race.
Watch the ad here: Financial Hardship
Upcoming Events
Additional Upcoming Virtual Meet & Greets
November 11
Rep. Tony Kurtz- Republican legislator for the 50th AD
November 18
Amanda Nedweski – Republican candidate for the 61st AD
Post-election Analysis
November 11
WisPolitics.com post-election analysis at UW-Milwaukee featuring Strategies Partner Bill McCoshen | Register here |
Fundraising Opportunities
A list of all upcoming fundraiser opportunities can be found by clicking the button below. For any questions or more information, please do not hesitate to contact your Michael Best Strategies contact.
